AFC South Picks: Texans vs. Colts Odds & Predictions

by | Oct 14, 2021 | nfl

Houston Texans (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS)

Week 6 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 1PM EDT

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

TV: Fox

Point Spread: HOU +9.5/IND -9.5 (MyBookie - Special 100% bonus up to $300 when you enter bonus code PREDICT100 during the registration process! Awesome bonus from an awesome sportsbook!)

Over/Under Total: 43

The Houston Texans take on the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday in AFC South action from Lucas Oil Stadium. Both teams were nipped at the wire after their opponents made big comebacks last week. Houston seemed to be in control of the Patriots, leading 22-9 in the third quarter against New England on Sunday before falling apart late to lose their fourth straight. It was even worse for the Colts on MNF, who seemed poised to win their second in a row and lend some credence to their season. Up on the Ravens 25-9 in the fourth quarter, they melted late and lost in overtime, 31-25. Who can bounce back and get the win and cover in Indy this week?

Don’t Neglect the Texans

One seemed to be well within their rights to low-ball the Texans’ prospects against the Pats last week, following an inept run of performances in recent weeks. They aren’t doing bad against the spread, and neither are the Colts, as both 1-4 teams are 3-2 ATS. On Sunday, they got the early jump on the Pats. Davis Mills was hitting targets left and right. He ended up with over 300 yards, and three TD passes with no picks. Sparely-used veteran Chris Moore had a big day, with Chris Conley also catching a TD. While they had their share of problems, and some weird calls and poor play on defense contributed to the New England comeback win, they at least showed some life. That’s better than they’ve shown for the last few weeks. And doing it against what had been a decent Pats’ defense gives it extra credence.

Colts’ Defeat a Good Sign?

While dropping what would have been a big win that would give them wind on MNF, the Colts represented themselves better to a degree. We saw Jonathan Taylor being an actual weapon and not just a guy you’re waiting on to finally produce. He had some big plays and had over 100 yards receiving and a TD while also running one in. The O-line was finally getting some push and looking like the team-asset some suspected it would be. Carson Wentz looked solid and not the rickety presence we saw in the first weeks of the season. He had over 400 yards through the air and made use of a varied cast, whose true worth finally came more to light last week.

This could all be a major handful on a Houston defense that has faltered against the more competent offenses they have faced this season. For a half last week, they took the Pats out of their game. They eventually capitulated, and against the Colts’ offense we saw on Monday, this could be a troublesome road spot for the Texans.

Optimism for Houston this Week

While Houston may have faded down the stretch against the Pats last week, it was nothing compared to how leaky the Colts’ “D” looked once Lamar Jackson and Company put their pedal to the metal. That has a lot to do with the unique offensive talent the Ravens possess, but that Indy potential to be combustible on that level is something even a star-strapped Texans’ offense can exploit. Even if the Texans came up short, what does it really matter? This is more about being on the road toward respectability and not Super Bowls. And seeing Mills putting up numbers, often connecting with guys you’ve never heard of like Moore and Antony Auclair, who caught a TD, was a positive sign.

A lot of Houston’s defensive reputation is built on a memorable 40-0 shutout loss to Buffalo and a 31-point output allowed to the Browns. Other than that, they’ve been respectable. Against The Patriots, Panthers, and Jaguars, they gave up a total of 69 points—not great perhaps, but showing some pluck, giving up just 23 points a game. Against offenses like what the Colts bring to the table typically, the Texans don’t get blown out of the park. When getting points against a 1-4 team, it’s something that could come in handy.

More Picks: Get Loot’s Take & Against the Spread Pick on the Rams/Giants Week 6 game.

Could This Be Indy’s Week?

Some things don’t shake out that well for the Colts. A mentally and physically-draining overtime loss and coming off the short week isn’t ideal. At 1-4, it’s not easy to spin out of that spot with a lot of optimism. But they are at home in a familiar pairing within their division. Houston’s spark against the Patriots aside, they had still scored 9 points in their last two games leading up to that. One game that they didn’t even win doesn’t mean they won’t revert to that.form spontaneously. If the Colts thought it was hard to get over last week, they don’t want to see what it’s like trying to regroup after falling to 1-5 after losing at home to the Texans. I’d expect their performance to reflect that. In fact, a duplicate from last week would be more than enough to win and cover the spread. And the things they flexed on Baltimore in a dominant three quarters should make life hard on the Texans this week.

Take the Home Favorite

It’s hard to argue that at 1-4, the Colts are a stable team or a dependable choice, especially laying this amount of points. And last week was scary for those looking to go against Houston. When a team is getting points and can jump out to a lead like that, it’s not easy to come back. Their decent performance against the spread attests to the fact that they’re not the joke some take them as.Nevertheless, even as both teams have the same record, I think Indy is a clear cut above. I’ll take the Colts this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Indianapolis Colts minus 9.5 points. Make the Texans a +28.5 underdog or the Colts a +9.5 underdog by placing either in a massive 19 point NFL teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook!