Arizona Cardinals(3-0SU, 2-1ATS) vs. Denver Broncos(2-1SU, 0-3ATS)
NFL Week5
Date and Time:October 5th@4:05PM E
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
TV: FOX
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: AZ +7/DEN -7
Over/Under Total: 48
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The Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos meet in this pivotal non-conference matchup, with both teams having extra time to prepare. Two weeks ago, the Cardinals defeated San Francisco 23-14 as 3-point home dogs. Backup quarterback Drew Stanton put a dagger into all the wise guys and professional bettors, as most sharps were on the 49ers. Stanton was 18-of-33 for 244 yards with two touchdowns and no mistakes. Carson Palmer is still listed as questionable but is expected to start. Drew Stanton has never started a game at high-altitude so that is something to keep an eye on. Two weeks ago, the Broncos lost 26-20 as 5-point road chalk in Seattle. The sportsbooks really needed Denver to cover that game as both the public and wise guys were backing Seattle. Denver was outgained by 52 yards and have lost the stats in all of their first three games.
The Broncos saw its undefeated streak come to an end against Seattle in Week three, and will now look to hand the Cardinals their first defeat. As I mentioned above, both teams are coming off its BYE week. There are favorable trends for both sides. More on that later. Arizona brings in the better defense allowing 316.3 yards per game, while the Broncos are allowing 390.7 per contest. Lets take a deeper look at the teams that Arizona has defeated. In the opening week, they defeated the Chargers by 1-point in a game they could have easily lost. They defeated the NY Giants in Week two by 9 points, despite getting outstatted by 75 yards. The Giants were still in the process of learning a new offense. My point being, is that Arizona has played teams at the right time.
Playing Denver in this spot may not be the right time. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS with two weeks to prepare in their last 16 home games. Denver has yet to cover a spread this season. The Broncos won its first two games at home by 7 points apiece. That would be good enough for at least a push in this game. Denver seems focused for this game after their Super Bowl rematch loss. The fourth quarter comeback that fell short against the Seahawks tells me this team has a lot of heart. Arizona has been dynamite off their BYE week too. Arizona is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road tilts with two weeks to prepare. Add in the fact that Arizona is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of any kind, and you have some strong stats that favor the road dog. The team is well-coached under second-year head coach Bruce Arians, and have gone 13-6 ATS since the beginning of last season.
This is your classic trap game as you have an undefeated team that is a bit overrated. The public is backing the Cardinals, while sharp money has been placed on Denver. A rusty Carson Palmer will start or a backup who has never faced this type of defense. Stanton has never played at Mile-High, and if he starts this play is even stronger. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings. The favorite is 4-1 ATS.
The Broncos are 20-3 SU and 16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. Denver is 22-7 SU and 20-8 ATS after a BYE week since 1993. The Cardinals are 9-18 SU and 9-18 ATS against the AFC West since 1993.
Jeff’sPick to Cover the Point Spread: Denver Broncos -7. Bet this game and ALL your college/pro games at reduced odds -105 at the web’s best sportsbook: 5Dimes.
The Cardinals are now dealing with some off-the-field distractions. Also, 3-0 or greater undefeated NFL underdogs playing with a week of rest are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS. This line might rise so get in early. Take the home team in a blowout!
