Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Pick

by | Last updated Sep 26, 2023 | nfl

Atlanta Falcons (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

NFL Football Week 4

Date/Time: Sunday October 1st, 2023. 9:30AM (EST)

Where: Wembley Stadium London, UK


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ATL +3/JAC -3 (Get a 100% bonus with code PREDICTEM at BetUS Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: Dirty Birds +145/Jags -160

Total: 44

NFL Sunday football will start early this week when the Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars meet across the pond at Wembley Stadium. The Jaguars will actually become the first NFL team in history to play back-to-back games outside the United States. Following this week’s showdown with the Falcons, the Jaguars will remain in London to face the Buffalo Bills on October 8th. However, if the trip across the pond is going to be successful, the Jaguars will have to shake off an embarrassing loss to the Houston Texans last week and get the offense back on track after scoring just 26 points over the last two games.

The Atlanta Falcons will make the trip to London fresh off a disappointing 20-3 loss to the Detroit Lions. For the first time this year, the Falcons failed to get their run-game going as tailbacks Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier were held to just 55 yards on 17 carries. With the run game failing, QB Desmond Ridder continued to struggle throwing the football hitting just 21 of 38 passing and failed to establish any type of threat down the field. Ridder has been an utter disappointment with his arm throughout the season, and it would be relatively safe to say that the Falcons’ success will likely ride on the success of their running game from week to week.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis

Unfortunately for the Falcons, the Jaguars have been rock solid against the run this season. However, I still believe RB Bijan Robinson is an incredible talent who is going to produce blowup games this season. Despite the tough and successful running from Allgeier, I would still advocate that Robinson needs more touches as the explosive back in Atlanta’s backfield. The problem is that if Robinson does not make the explosive plays and Atlanta’s running game is anything less than superb; I don’t have any confidence in Ridder to make any significant plays in the passing game.

Despite having extremely talented guys like WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts, the Falcons passing attack is nearly extinct with their current quarterback situation. I believe that could spell trouble against Jacksonville this week. I mentioned that the Jaguars have a solid run-defense, but this is also a needed bounce-back game for the Jaguars passing attack. QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Calvin Ridley, and the rest of the Jaguars passing offense struggled against the Texans last week. There were plenty of opportunities, but the Jaguars simply made a lot of mistakes. RB Travis Etienne was the lone bright spot on the team and should continue to give Jacksonville enough threat out of the backfield to be respected by defenses. Since Atlanta has not shown anything overly imposing on the defensive side of the football, I’m inclined to believe Jacksonville will bounce back this weekend on the offensive side of the football because their talent is too good to post a dud for a 2nd straight week.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends

  • The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games.
  • The Falcons are 3-6 SU in the last nine games.
  • The Falcons have hit the “under” in five of the last six games.
  • The Falcons are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Jacksonville.
  • The Falcons are 0-6 SU in the last six games on the road.
  • The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games.
  • The Jaguars have hit the “under” in four of the last five games.
  • The Jaguars are 1-19 SU in the last 20 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Jaguars have hit the “under” in seven of the last eight games against Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Prediction

Admittedly, I could be missing something here in the match-ups that warrants a 3-point betting line. However, I think Jacksonville is the far superior team, and this betting line is much narrower because of the week three loss to the Texans. Expect Jacksonville to win this game relatively easily!
Jay’s Pick: Take Jacksonville -3

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