Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Betting Pick

by | Last updated Nov 29, 2023 | nfl

Atlanta Falcons (5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (4-7 SU, 2-8-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 13

Date/Time: Sunday December 3rd, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: MetLife Stadium East Rutherford, NJ


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ATL -3/NYJ +3

Moneyline: Dirty Birds -150/J-E-T-S +130

Total: 34

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Last week, the Atlanta Falcons took the top spot in the NFC South thanks to a 24-15 victory over the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons are now tied with the Saints at 5-6 SU for the lead in the division, with the dirty birds getting the tiebreaker. Not only was last week’s victory big for the Falcons’ playoff chances, but it also marked the return of QB Desmond Ridder under center. As many are aware, Ridder was benched earlier this year. After a failed experiment with backup QB Taylor Heinicke, Ridder returned to the starting spot and provided some highlights in the passing game despite a modest stat line. On Sunday, the Falcons will look to build off last week’s win when they travel to MetLife Stadium for a week 13 showdown with the New York Jets.

The Jets know all about quarterback struggles, as it has been the main point of concern for the last couple of seasons. The Jets thought those problems were erased when Aaron Rodgers was brought over in the offseason, but Rodgers suffered a critical Achilles injury in the opening possession of the season. While there have been some hopes that Rodgers could make a return this year, the likelihood of Rodgers’ returning this year is slipping away with each Jets loss. At 4-7 SU, the Jets’ playoff chances appear bleak, which means the Zach Wilson saga continues for the foreseeable future. This Sunday, the Jets will be a mere 3-point underdog in a match-up against the Falcons that offers some optimism.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Betting Analysis

Against high-scoring or highly productive offenses, the Jets simply cannot match the offensive production to win football games. QB Zach Wilson has been downright awful, and that may be the nicest way to describe his performance. Wilson is completing just 59% passing and has thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdown passes (6). In fact, Cowboys CB DaRon Bland has just one less touchdown this season from the defensive side of the football. Needless to say, the Jets’ offense is not providing much hope, and that has allowed defenses to focus on the only two viable options the Jets still have in RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson.

With all things considered, the Jets still have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and that will give them chances to win football games, especially against struggling offenses like Atlanta. While the Falcons produced some flashes of success last week, they were still highly inefficient and continued to turn the ball over which have been themes throughout the season. Let’s face it: Ridder is not the answer at the quarterback position, and this Falcons rushing attack is far less productive than most expected this season with tailbacks Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Personally, I have been surprised at how Robinson has been used this year following what the Falcons invested in the young RB in last year’s NFL Draft. Either way, the Falcons offense has lacked creativity, continuously been inefficient, and turned the ball over. Not to mention, the Jets’ defense matches up very well against the Falcons stylistically. Therefore, this Sunday’s showdown may come down to the offense that can simply avoid the mistakes regardless of the production outcome.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Betting Trends

  • The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in the last ten games.
  • The Falcons are 3-6 SU in the last nine games.
  • The Falcons are 1-10 SU in the last 11 games on the road.
  • The Falcons have hit the “under” 12 of the last 17 games.
  • The Jets are 0-4-1 ATS in the last five games.
  • The Jets are 1-4 SU in the last five games.
  • The Jets have hit the “under” in five of the last six games.
  • The Jets are 1-4 SU in the last five games against the Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Betting Prediction

This match-up has the lowest posted total (34) of the entire NFL Week 13 slate, and I believe that number may be potentially too high. That said, I still like the Jets purely from a match-up standpoint. If the offense can get the run game going, it will make things easier, but I think the defense will force a few turnovers that will lead to the best scoring opportunities!

Jay’s Pick: Take the Jets +3

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