Baltimore Ravens (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (6-8 SU, 5-8-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, December 22nd, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: FirstEnergy Field – Cleveland, OH
Point Spread: BAL -10 / CLE +10 (Intertops)
Power Ratings: Cleveland +16
Takeaways From Week 15
The Ravens expanded their winning streak to an incredible ten games after taking down the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football last week. Closing as a 17-point favorite, Baltimore also got the job done in producing a cover when they smothered Gang Green 42-21. The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their previous eight contests.
The Browns step into this match-up off a nasty loss on the road sustained at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. Closing as a three-point favorite, the Brownies were defeated 38-24 by Big Red. Over their last six outings, Cleveland is 3-2-1 ATS.
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How the Public is Betting the Baltimore- Cleveland Game
74% of the consensus like the Ravens in this market, and as a result, we have seen this line soar from the get-go. The Ravens opened as a seven-point favorite, but very quickly, that number rose by three points to where we find the Browns priced presently.
The last collision between Cleveland and Baltimore occurred earlier this season when the Ravens hosted the Brownies on September 29th. Closing as a 7.5-point favorite, Baltimore would fall to Cleveland by a score of 40-25.
As of late, the Browns have been a profitable choice in this series as they have gone 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings between these two sides. The Road Team in this rivalry has gone 14-5-1 ATS in the previous 20 meetings between Baltimore and Cleveland.
Cleveland has declared two key injury concerns that raise a lot of uncertainty heading into this AFC North bout. Both Tight End David Njoku and Cornerback Denzel Ward are listed with day-to-day injuries. Njoku sat out Cleveland’s last game with a knee injury while Ward left Cleveland’s previous match with an ankle injury. The status of both players remains a question mark heading into this divisional rivalry game.
Why We Like The Browns To Cover
It’s so easy to pull the trigger on the Ravens here as they look like the team to beat in the AFC at this point, but I am not one for playing a group at a bad number. The three-point line move from the opening number creates value on the Browns, albeit we are getting them with an additional field goal. By virtue of this reason alone, a play is warranted on Cleveland. However, there are other factors to also consider. Some other betting sites may argue that Baltimore is, in fact, supremely undervalued here, but I will have to disagree respectfully. There are few teams, if any, that have a higher market presence at the moment than the Ravens as all sorts of exaggerated language has surrounded this franchise as of recent. While Lamar Jackson may indeed be a lock for the MVP, the Browns own an emotional intangible of going into Baltimore earlier this season and handing the Ravens one of its two losses. While Cleveland has been a disappointment as a whole in 2019, I trust they will be motivated and bring their best with the Dawg Pound sweating it out beside them.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Cleveland +10
Many will also be quick to jump all over the Ravens in this spot because they get home-field advantage throughout if they notch a win here. While this is indeed true, it is no reason to back a team because that essentially is applying a “must-win” angle to this game, which is something that I have seen the result in more losing wagers time and time again. Will Baltimore get the win? Probably. However, I see this being a competitive contest throughout and not being separated by more than a touchdown. On the flip-side should Baltimore get this game under control early, Coach John Harbaugh will undoubtedly pull his starters, and we probably won’t see them until the playoffs thereafter. As a result, the backdoor cover potential is also significant in this game as well. However, I don’t think it is going to come to that. Baltimore is going to have to fight for this win against a Cleveland squad that will be looking to redeem itself for a pedestrian follow-up to their coming out party in 2018. Take the points.