Bet Most Receiving Yards in the NFL 2019

by | Jun 6, 2019 | nfl

Most Receiving Yards in the NFL

Placing a bet on who will lead the NFL in receiving yards can be a fun bet. It’s usually a pretty wide-open category and the most prominent betting sites have very different odds. Last season, there was some suspense during the season, with Atlanta wide receiver Julio Jones leading in yards for the second time. And it’s really an up-in-the-air category, as no players had led the league in yards more than twice since Jerry Rice did it. This season features a stocked list of viable candidates. Let’s look at some of the different factors we will be considering, followed by the odds, and our best picks.

Team Philosophy

Naturally, how an offense intends to operate plays a big role on whether a receiver can get to this level. It’s important during the offseason to note any changes at head coach or the offensive coordinator spot. A recent look at who has led the league in receiving yards shows players working in offenses that stress the pass. Seems easy enough, but there are some wrinkles within that context.

Quality of Team

A recent look at yardage-leaders shows a mixed bag in this regard. Lately, it’s about half and half on whether the top receiver’s team even makes the playoffs. Sure, a powerful offense from a good team sets up well for a top receiver to flourish. But sometimes, a lack of offensive balance, playing from behind on a bad team, or being the only real weapon in an offense can also lead to padded stats.

Quarterback

It’s not wrong to look for receivers on teams with good quarterbacks. Prolific ball-throwers have receivers with big numbers. But the quarterback doesn’t have to be a Hall of Famer in the making, either. Since 2001, some of the quarterbacks who threw to the league leader in receiving yardage includes Jake Plummer, Marc Bulger, Jake Delhomme (twice), Matt Schaub (twice), Kyle Orton, and in 2013 when Josh Gordon led with Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell splitting time at quarterback.

Run Game

On one hand, you don’t want to usually go with an offense that runs so much that it makes it hard for the aerial game to put up numbers. But picking receivers on team with a respectable and difference-making run-game can really give you an edge. Simply put, a diversified offense takes the focus off individual players. Receivers on teams that can run well are more-open and therefore, put up numbers.

Weather

When you’re in the middle of a receiving yardage race, you probably don’t want the guy you bet on to be playing in a bunch of harsh weather late in the season. Still, just in this decade, we’ve seen receiving yards leaders coming out of Pittsburgh twice, Cleveland, and Denver. Still, picking receivers out of New England, Buffalo, New York, and Chicago isn’t easy. But a stadium getting bad weather doesn’t necessarily remove an otherwise good candidate from consideration.

Evaluating Entire Receiving Corps

Again, this one requires a delicate balance, as well. A team with a plethora of options could mean a receiver doesn’t get the necessary number of targets to compete in this category. At the same time, being the only viable ball-catcher in an offense could lead to a lot of double-teams. Still, just in the last decade, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, and TY Hilton accounted for about half of the receiving-yards titles with not much around them, so who’s to say?

Player Moves

As we have noted, it’s important to fathom what a receiver you’re betting on has around him personnel-wise. You want to look if a team added other ball-catchers, then decide if that will help the receiver thrive or take a lot of targets away from him. Maybe a team boosted their run-game and that’s enough to give a receiver the edge he needs. Or the offensive line was boosted and the quarterback will be spending less time on his back. Before plunking down loot on a player, see what changed around him.

NFL Regular Season Props - Most Receiving Yards

Julio Jones +600

DeAndre Hopkins +700

Michael Thomas +1000

Odell Beckham Jr +1200

Mike Evans +1500

Antonio Brown +1600

JuJu Smith-Schuster +1600

Adam Thielen +2000

T.Y. Hilton +2000

Tyreek Hill +2000

Davante Adams +2500

Keenan Allen +2500

A.J. Green +3300

Travis Kelce +3300

Amari Cooper +4000

George Kittle +5000

Brandin Cooks +6000

DeSean Jackson +7500

Julian Edelman +7500

Kenny Golladay +7500

Robert Woods +7500

Stefon Diggs +7500

Zach Ertz +7500

Chris Godwin +8000

N’Keal Harry +8000

Demaryius Thomas +10000

Keke Coutee +10000

D.K. Metcalf +10500

Christian Kirk +12500

D.J. Moore +12500

Dante Pettis +12500

Jarvis Landry +12500

Sterling Shepard +12500

Tyler Boyd +12500

Tyler Lockett +12500

Alshon Jeffery +15000

Antonio Callaway +15000

Calvin Ridley +15000

Cooper Kupp +15000

Dede Westbrook +15000

Golden Tate +15000

Kenny Stills +15000

Marquise Brown +15000

Robby Anderson +15000

Sammy Watkins +15000

Saquon Barkley +15000

Michael Gallup +17500

Todd Gurley +17500

A.J. Brown +20000

Courtland Sutton +20000

Emmanuel Sanders +20000

Geronimo Allison +20000

Hakeem Butler +20000

James Washington +20000

Jamison Crowder +20000

Jared Cook +20000

Josh Gordon +20000

Larry Fitzgerald +20000

Marvin Jones Jr +20000

Tyrell Williams +20000

Will Fuller +20000

Christian McCaffrey +22500

Allen Robinson +25000

Austin Hooper +25000

Curtis Samuel +25000

David Njoku +25000

Evan Engram +25000

Mike Williams +25000

Mohamed Sanu +25000

O.J. Howard +25000

Tarik Cohen +25000

Corey Davis +30000

Eric Ebron +30000

Hunter Henry +30000

Alvin Kamara +35000

Top Candidates

Julio Jones (+600): A lot of things are in-place to make this pick. He has done it twice before, is still at his peak, and plays in the perfect offense and stadium to put up huge numbers. There are also enough respected ball-catchers in the Falcons’ offense that defenders can’t afford to solely focus on Jones. The top favorite on the board is a big player in this category.

DeAndre Hopkins (+700): About 100 yards off the pace last season, Hopkins is one of the more consistently-productive receivers on this list and the star of a good offense with a growing force at QB in Deshaun Watson. With growing forces around him like receivers Will Fuller and Keke Coutee, maybe he can free up a bit, but he’s already close.

Mike Evans (+1500): A consistent performer who eclipsed 1500 yards last season for the first time, 153 yards behind the league-leader Jones. With Arians coming in as head coach, the approach will remain pass-heavy. After losing their number two and three receivers, however, and with no running-game to speak of, will the double-team matchups be too much to overcome? Still a pretty decent value at 15-1.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (+1600): Not that far off last season with 1426 yards, Smith-Schuster becomes Pittsburgh’s top aerial weapon and you’d think he would stand to inherit some of departed Antonio Brown’s targets. With Brown gone and the run-game not strong, he will definitely have to work harder to get open. But with the defending passing yards leader as his QB, his numbers could be big. A nice choice at these odds.

Adam Thielen (+2000): A quieter sort, he has compiled over 2600 receiving yards the last two seasons and has a QB in Cousins who can put up numbers. Having weapons around him like Stefon Diggs also means he can avoid double-teams more often than not. Last season, he was out in front by the midseason point, before tailing off. He had eight straight 100-yard games to open 2018 and a more-complete season should have him right in the mix at 20-1.

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