Bet the Total: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick

by | Last updated Jan 26, 2023 | nfl

Cincinnati Bengals (14-4 SU, 13-5 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-3 SU, 6-11-1 ATS)

AFC Championship Preview

Date/Time: Sunday January 29th, 2023. 6:30 PM (EST)

Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, MO


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: CIN -1.5/KC +1.5 (Bet this game for FREE using one of our sportsbook bonus codes to get a 100% bonus!)

Moneyline: CIN -125/KC +105

Total: 47.5

This year’s AFC Championship Game will feature a rematch from last year when the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Arrowhead Stadium for a showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs. Just a year ago, the Bengals did the unthinkable by marching into Arrowhead and pulling out a thrilling overtime victory to earn their first Super Bowl appearance in more than 30 years. On Sunday, the Chiefs and Bengals will rekindle their fight for dominance in the AFC in what is quickly starting to become a fierce rivalry between both organizations.

Of course, at the center of this budding rivalry is the prestige of two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has arguably been the best quarterback in the league for the last several years. Following a 13-3 regular season, the Chiefs held off an emerging Jaguars team in a 27-20 victory last weekend, which was fueled by a huge performance from TE Travis Kelce, who brought in 14 receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns. The victory helped the Chiefs and Mahomes earn their 5th straight appearance in the AFC Championship Game. However, Cincinnati appears to be the only team that has been able to tame the Chiefs in recent years. Aside from last year’s win in the AFC title game, Bengals QB Joe Burrow is 3-0 SU in his short career against the Chiefs, which includes an eerily similar 27-24 win over the Chiefs back in week 13 of the regular season. If Burrow and the Bengals can find a way to get past the Chiefs yet again, they may surpass Kansas City as the new AFC powerhouse.


AFC Championship Betting Analysis

Despite the allure of both quarterbacks, who are equipped with extremely talented scoring offenses, the total is 2-1 in favor of the “under” over the last two years between the Bengals and the Chiefs. Every meeting between both teams has been met with significantly high totals, and the only “over” that has cashed was Cincinnati’s 34-31 victory over the Chiefs last season in week 17. To complicate the expected high-scoring assumption, Cincinnati is also coming off perhaps their best defensive performance of the season as they held QB Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to just 10 points, their lowest mark of the season. In last week’s 27-10 victory over Buffalo, the defense was able to produce many blitz packages and played extremely well at the line of scrimmage to keep Allen under duress. Needless to say, that is exactly the type of pressure they will need again this week on Mahomes and a Chiefs’ pass-happy offense.

On the other side of the equation, Cincinnati has not been as explosive this season when you compare it to last year’s Super Bowl run. Not to mention, Arrowhead Stadium is typically one of the most difficult stadiums for visiting teams despite the Bengals’ recent successes over the Chiefs. For this Sunday’s contest, the betting total is the lowest of the Burrow vs. Mahomes era at just 47 points, and I think that total is warranted with the recent stellar play of both defenses. Additionally, I would also argue that these teams are very familiar with each other due to the number of times they have faced off over the last 12 months. In the week 13 meeting, QB Joe Burrow played flawlessly and backup running back Samaje Perine had a huge performance in the absence of Joe Mixon. Despite the success, the Bengals still needed a big 4th quarter effort to pull out the victory. Needless to say, anything but another flawless performance from the Cincinnati offense would likely favor the “under” cashing in this series yet again.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

  • Cincinnati is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games
  • Cincinnati is 10-0 SU in the last ten games
  • Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in the last five games on the road
  • Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Kansas City
  • The “under” has cashed in 7 of the last eight games between Cincinnati and Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium
  • Kansas City is just 2-5 ATS in the last seven games
  • Kansas City is 6-0 SU in the last six games
  • Kansas City is 5-0 SU in the last five games at home
  • The “under” has cashed in 11 of the last 14 games between Cincinnati and Kansas City

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Total Prediction

I was really hoping this line would be in the low 50s because I was going to hammer the “under.” While I did not get the number I was hoping for and believe this point total is pretty fair, I still lean towards the defenses for both Cincinnati and Kansas City coming up with strong performances for the 2nd straight week. I personally believe the Bengals’ defense is playing their best football of the season, and I am going to stick with my intuition that the “under” remains the best play for the total in this AFC Championship Game.
Jay’s Pick: Take the under 47.5. Bet your NFL playoff predictions for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you use promo code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!