Betting Underdogs in NFL Football
This isn’t to say that you need to bet every underdog, because that’s not a winning proposition. We’re just recommending that you consider underdogs FIRST.
The reason for this is that the oddsmakers know that everybody loves to bet the good teams. This in turn creates what we’ll call an “inflated line”.
Let’s use the 2006 Green Bay Packers vs. the Seattle Seahawks as an example. Green Bay is somewhat of a poor team. Let’s say they go into Seattle, (who was pretty good in 2006) and are getting +7 vs. the Seahawks.
Many sports bettors’ first thought is that Seattle is going to win this game because they’re a better team, and for that reason alone, many will lay the -7 points with the Hawks.
The truth is, the real line SHOULD have been Green Bay +6, but the line may have been pushed to -7 because the bookies know that your going lay it one way or another. This gives them a chance to sneak another point onto the spread, which coincidentally crosses to another key number, which is HUGE for the sportsbook.
Point spreads are created by the linesmaker based on public perception, not the true difference in what they think the winning margin will be. Just look at any week’s card and compare it against the closing lines. Very few games even come close to being similar to the true margin of victory.
BET ON NFL GAMES AT REDUCED VIG -105 INSTEAD OF
THE NORMAL -110 AT BAS SPORTSBOOK
The truth is, over the long haul, good teams win and bad teams cover the spread. We know it’s hard to root for the bad team, but you have to shift your way of thinking if you want to have any chance of winning at football betting.
There’s a few more reasons to take dogs as well. Teams know when they’re an underdog. It’s only human nature to play with more motivation when your’re not expected to win. “Respect” is a big thing with athletes (especially in the NBA).
Another reason to hunt for the barking dog is in this day and age, most NFL coaches are big into sportsmanship and won’t run up the score on another team. Especially if the opposing coach is a friend, which happens a lot. If they’re winning late and have an opportunity to score, often times they’ll sit on the ball and kill the clock. We’ve all been there. It really sucks watching the clock tick down, knowing that you only needed your team to kick a field goal so you can cover your bet. More times than not, they aren’t going to do it though. Very few coaches run up the score anymore. Which leads us to another point… Know who the coaches are that will run up a score. Bill Belichick is a great example of a coach that likes to put up a 50-burger on another team!
Yet another reason for taking the dog is that the NFL has changed over the years and dynasty’s don’t really exist anymore. Parity is the word and ‘re a firm believer that on any given day, any team can beat another team.
If your tired of being sent to the poor house each football season, we recommend you try changing the way you gamble on NFL football games. You will be very pleased with the results!
On another note, the same thing can be said for betting unders instead of overs, however, we’ll leave that for another article.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in reading another piece that offers tips and advice relative to placing your football bets.
Lastly, be sure to check out our NFL underdog of the week pick!
