Browns vs. Cowboys Week 4 Odds & Predictions

by | Sep 30, 2020 | nfl

Cleveland Browns (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday October 4th, 2020. 1:00PM (EST)
Where:AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX.

Point Spread:CLE +5/DAL -5 (Get the best bonus)
Over/Under Total: 56

Last week, I advised bettors that the Seattle Seahawks should have no problem taking care of the Dallas Cowboys. Admittedly, I was wrong to an extent. The Cowboys competed well, thanks to a few critical Seahawks mistakes, and had a chance to win the game in the closing minutes. However, Seattle still emerged with a 38-31 victory and covered the spread in the process. This week a completely different type of match-up awaits in Arlington when the Cleveland Browns meet the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, and this time the Cowboys should be getting the betting attention!

The Cleveland Browns emerged above the .500 mark for the first time since 2014, snapping the NFL’s longest streak below .500. The Browns accomplished the feat in week three by knocking off the Washington Football Team in a 34-20 outcome that was largely credited to Washington’s five turnovers and pitiful play by QB Dwayne Haskins. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield posted yet another mediocre performance, and the offense once again got bailed out by running back Nick Chubb, who carried the team for 108 rushing yards with two touchdowns on just 19 carries. It was the 2nd straight week Chubb hit the century mark and recorded two touchdowns in the same game. The Browns will need a similar effort from their star running back again on Sunday against an explosive Cowboys offense.

Can Cleveland keep pace with Dallas?

The question that will directly result in the betting outcome of this game is can the Browns keep pace with the Cowboys offense? Despite the 1-2 SU record, the Cowboys are getting better each week on offense, and as everyone is aware, they are loaded with talent. The Browns are solid along the defensive front with DE Myles Garrett anchoring the edge. However, the Browns have been vulnerable through the air this season, which poses the most concern this week. QB Dak Prescott has thrown for more than 900 yards over the last two games. Receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb provide a nightmarish match-up for the Browns secondary, who should have few answers against the Cowboys passing attack.

From a betting standpoint, the Cowboys defense is their biggest risk factor. Despite solid offensive output, the Cowboys defense has been thrashed through the air, which was the case again last week as they gave up multiple big plays to Seahawks receivers. However, I am not confident in Baker Mayfield’s ability to expose the Cowboys defensive soft spots. Mayfield has been very inconsistent down the field, and the largest portion of his completion percentage comes within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. I mentioned earlier that the Browns had been bailed out over the last two weeks by Nick Chubb’s running ability. However, that is actually the strength of this Dallas defense as they have a bend but don’t break run defense. As long as they keep Chubb in check to a reasonable degree, I don’t have enough faith in Mayfield or Cleveland’s offense to keep pace in this game.

More Picks: Saints at Lions Week 4 Prediction

Cleveland vs. Dallas Betting Trends

Neither the Browns nor the Cowboys have exactly impressed bettors recently. The Cowboys are 0-3 ATS on the season and 1-4 ATS in their past five games going back to last year. Meanwhile, the Browns have been equally bad, going just 1-5 ATS in their previous six games. Perhaps the trend with the most weight correlates to Cleveland’s 0-7 mark ATS in their last seven road games. If you look at Cleveland’s home/away splits and even compare Baker Mayfield’s home/away performances, there has been a huge difference in production from the Browns who have continuously under-performed on the road. Also, it is worth noting that both Cleveland and Dallas have hit the “over” in five of their last seven games, which is the reason the total for this game is currently residing at a lofty mark of 56!

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I believe this is a good spot for the Cowboys. If they can get out front early, I think they will handle business easily. Even if they fall behind early, they have the firepower to still get the job done. Take Dallas -5

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