Buffalo Bills Season Win O/U Lines & Picks

by | Last updated Sep 6, 2020 | nfl

Dawson Knox Bills TE

Buffalo Bills Season Wins Total Over-Under

It’s been a while since people talked about the Buffalo Bills as flatteringly as they are now. Some younger Bills fans might not even remember a time where there was this much optimism. Sean McDermott has gotten this team to the postseason twice in the last three seasons, following a nearly two-decades-long funk. But it was last season that really created some genuine promise, as the young Bills stormed to a 10-6 season. For the first time in recent memory, the Bills are now the leading favorite to take the AFC East division.

With young quarterback Josh Allen starting to fulfill their promise, the offense is starting to click. The defense has really found its bearings. All the earmarks of a good team are present. Now we will see if they can shrug away the institutional losing tradition. It isn’t easy for a franchise long mired in the rough. It’s not always a constant upward trajectory when trying to turn around a losing tradition. Let’s try to figure out where the Bills will end up this season. Below are the odds for their win total for the 2020 regular season, followed by our analysis and best-value picks.

A Look at the Odds

  • BUF regular season wins over 10.5 +201
  • BUF regular season wins under 10.5 -241
  • BUF regular season wins over 10 +167
  • BUF regular season wins under 10 -193
  • BUF regular season wins over 9.5 +117
  • BUF regular season wins under 9.5 -137
  • BUF regular season wins over 9 -125
  • BUF regular season wins under 9 +105
  • BUF regular season wins over 8.5 -171
  • BUF regular season wins under 8.5 +151
  • BUF regular season wins over 8 -269
  • BUF regular season wins under 8 +229
  • BUF regular season wins over 7.5 -334
  • BUF regular season wins under 7.5 +274

Odds Explanation: At 5 Dimes, you can pick from a range of different win-totals, which is a neat little tool for those who have a strong feeling on Buffalo, either in favor of or in opposition of their chances. The standard win total is nine wins, with over nine going off at -125, with under nine wins fetching a +105 quote. The range of win totals covers a range of 7.5 to 10.5 wins.

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Pick Analysis

I’m picking that the Bills go under 9.5 wins at -137. It’s one of the tougher picks on the board with a wide-range team like the Bills. Their division got easier with the departure of Brady. Getting six games against the Pats, Jets, and Dolphins could really pay off in getting the Bills close to some of these win-totals. They have some tricky road spots against Las Vegas, Tennessee, Arizona, Frisco, with tough road spots in Denver and New England in weeks 15 and 16. They host the Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Chargers, and Steelers. So it’s a tougher roster of teams than what they played last season.

And last season is a big part of what has fed into the reputation of the Bills’ defense. Watching them over the course of the season, I had the impression that everything went right for them—health-wise and the opposition they played. The competition ramps up heavily this season, as they play a slew of more-talented offensive teams than they did last season. But they are strong and loaded. Some departures in the front seven hurt, and they need guys like Ed Oliver and Tremaine Edmunds to start delivering on their promise. But a stacked and playmaking secondary, with a pretty complete unit should have this defense squarely in the top ten.

The offense is really coming together. Allen has a competent line around him, which has come together better than anyone would have expected, as many uncelebrated youngsters and veterans really delivered on this offense. With his 58.8% completion percentage from a year ago, Allen might not be the most electric passer in the league, but he’s getting better. Receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley are pretty good, but getting Stefon Diggs could really transform their aerial approach. But on the ground is where a lot of the damage occurs. Devin Singletary had a fine rookie season. Allen might be the most dangerous quarterback on his feet who isn’t named Lamar Jackson, and he really has a great nose for the end zone when he’s running the rock. Rookie running back Zack Moss has been turning heads in camp and might give the Bills yet another option.

There is a lot to balance with the Bills. This is the hardest breakthrough point of all NFL teams—when you’re knocking on the door ready to come in. A Lot of teams can’t make that next jump. There are only so many spots to go around in a conference packed with threats in every division. And when a team that thrived last season is now being asked to duplicate or beat last year’s production against a more-difficult slate of teams, it’s not always a slam-dunk.

It really comes down to your particular optimism. But I think both Bills naysayers and apologists could both cool their jets a little bit. They’re not going away, so forget about that. I just don’t see a scenario where a team as complete as this falls completely flat. But those who think they’re going to prevail in every close game and storm to a 12 or 13 win season might be equally off-the-mark. I just see a tough schedule keeping them below ten wins, which might still end up being enough to win the AFC East this season.

Final Verdict

Sure, picking under 9.5 wins could prove to be a mistake. I think we saw some things last season that painted a picture of a rising team, but I’m not sure they kept pace with the changes other teams made. A tougher schedule could humble the Bills a bit. I see a good team, but one with enough issues that could make getting to double-digit wins a tough road.

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