Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Total Pick

by | Jan 20, 2021 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2 SU, 6-10-1 ATS)

AFC Championship Preview

Date/Time: Sunday January 24th, 2021. 6:40PM (EST)

Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, MO


Point Spread:BUF +3/KC -3 (BetOnline - One of the players favs! 35% crypto reloads!)

Over/Under Total: 53.5

For the 2nd week in a row, the Buffalo Bills knocked off a quality opponent to keep their Cinderella playoff hopes alive. After edging out the Colts 27-24 in the AFC Wild Card, the Bills took down Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in a dominating 17-3 defensive effort. Now for the first time in nearly 20 years, the Buffalo Bills will make an AFC Championship appearance when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday for a showdown with the reigning Super Bowl Champions via the Kansas City Chiefs.

Despite being double-digit favorites, the Chiefs survived an incredible scare in multiple facets in last Sunday’s 22-17 victory over the Browns. Not only did Cleveland compete better than most people expected, but the Chiefs lost their franchise quarterback Patrick Mahomes who went down in the 3rd quarter with a concussion. With Mahomes sidelined, backup QB Chad Henne made just enough plays to help the Chiefs hang on in the closing minutes to keep their ambitions of a repeat alive. While Kansas City has been the dominant team in the NFL this year, riding a 15-2 SU record, the Chiefs’ Super Bowl LV chances linger on the health of their star quarterback.

Mahomes expected to start in AFC Championship Game

When Mahomes went down in the 3rd quarter in last week’s win over the Browns. He was obviously disoriented when he attempted to stand, which sent obvious indications of a potential concussion. The Chiefs have refrained from calling Mahomes’ injury a “concussion” despite the obvious signs, and reports on Tuesday are now suggesting he may have tweaked a nerve in his neck, which ultimately caused his early exit. Either way, Mahomes is in the NFL’s concussion protocol because he displayed signs of a concussion, which is within NFL rules. However, due to the latest diagnosis and discussions out of Chiefs headquarters, the star quarterback is not expected to miss this Sunday’s AFC Championship Game despite earlier concerns. Mahomes is reportedly symptom-free and will return to practice on Wednesday, which nearly guarantees his availability for Sunday barring any setbacks.

More Picks: Buffalo at Kansas City Point Spread Pick >>>

Defense provides value on the “under”

While Mahomes will return on Sunday, there is nothing guaranteed for the Chiefs’ offense in terms of production. Buffalo’s defense has been playing extremely well, which we saw in last week’s AFC Divisional match-up against the Ravens. Buffalo held Baltimore to their lowest scoring output of the season. Furthermore, this same Bills defense held the Chiefs to one of their production outputs of the season back in Week 6 despite a 26-17 loss. Mahomes was held to his 2nd lowest passing total (225 yards) of the season but failed to get much going on the offensive side of the ball.

The reason that Week 6 match-up is important is because Buffalo Head Coach Sean McDermott played numerous deep zone and man coverages with their No. 1 focus towards shutting down Mahomes. In reality, it worked as Mahomes was held to a moderately average 225-yard performance. However, in order to pull off the success in coverage, the Bills gave up gashing holes in the run game as Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 161 yards and the Chiefs racked up 245 yards on the ground. In Sunday’s encore match-up, we should expect another sell-out job towards stopping Mahomes from the Bills defense, and honestly, they have the personnel to make things difficult for the Chiefs’ talented offense. To further complicate matters, Chiefs running back Edwards-Helaire no longer has the lion’s share of the backfield that we witnessed in Week 6. In fact, the Chiefs have averaged just 97 rushing yards as a team over their last three games, which causes concerns from a match-up standpoint.

Obviously, you never want to bet against Mahomes and the Chiefs all-star caliber offense unless we have a good reason. In the case of Buffalo’s defense, I think we have a strong case. Furthermore, let’s not overlook the Chiefs’ defense in this match-up either. Kansas City held Buffalo QB Josh Allen to his worst performance of the season back in week 6. Allen passed for just 122 yards with two touchdowns and one pick. While Buffalo’s offense has been playing much better in recent weeks behind Allen and WR Stefon Diggs, we still have to consider the Chiefs’ strong defensive splits at home and take the information into consideration. As a result, I have this total capped at nearly a touchdown under the current total and believe bettors should jump on the prime opportunity to fade the Chiefs/Bills offensive appeal in this week’s AFC Championship Game!

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Under 53.5. Bet your AFC Championship pick FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus when you deposit anywhere from $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook!