Buffalo Bills (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. New York Giants (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 16, 2011, Week 6 NFL, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. TV: CBS
by Ryno, Professional Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Buf +3/NYG -3
Over/Under Total: 50
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The Buffalo Bills are perhaps the surprise team this year in the NFL. A 3-0 start included a signature win over the New England Patriots, which proved that the Bills are indeed for real. A loss to the Cincinnati Bengals temporarily halted the positive feelings towards the Bills, but then they went out and dominated a desperate and talented Philadelphia Eagles team to improve to 4-1 on the season.
Now, the Bills have another tough test, on the road at the 3-2 New York Giants. The Gmen are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Seattle Seahawks, a game that was tied at halftime, after the Giants allowed 20 points in the fourth quarter. This game seems like a nice spot for the Giants. They’re at home coming off a bad loss with their bye week coming up next, going against a team coming off a fairly big win at home that is now going on the road and can afford to lose one. The Bills also have their bye week coming up next.
The Bills offense has been phenomenal this season. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has 1,233 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. Running back Fred Jackson has 480 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, plus 19 receptions for 232 receiving yards. Steve Johnson, who has 28 receptions for 343 yards and three touchdowns, is clearly the Bills’ No. 1 receiver, but he’s not the only Bills receiver doing work this season. David Nelson, Jackson and Donald Jones have all been solid as well.
The Giants’ passing attack has also been very good this season. Eli Manning has been terrific with 1,486 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. Brandon Jacobs gets a decent amount of carries but Ahmad Bradshaw is clearly the feature back. He has 286 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns along with 17 receptions for 146 yards and a receiving touchdown. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz have been terrific as receivers. They have combined for 47 receptions, 798 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns.
Expect this game to be a shootout. It may come down to which defense can get a few timely stops and which defense can hold the other team to field goals instead of touchdowns. Both the Bills and the Giants can really air it out. Fitzpatrick and Manning have been very good this season thus far, and both also have solid running games to mix it up. Jackson and Bradshaw give their respective offenses some nice backfield options on the ground and in the screen game. And neither one of these defenses has been very good.
The Giants defense is hampered by injuries and can still be solid at times but is coming off a weak performance against the measly Seahawks, allowing 20 points in the fourth quarter and 36 points for the game. If they can’t stop the Seahawks, they certainly can’t stop the Bills, one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. The Bills have been getting by with their offense, although they have been able to force turnovers on defense. They allowed 35 points to the Oakland Raiders and similarly beat the Patriots in a shootout. Last week against the Eagles, they got out to a big lead before their defense nearly let the Eagles back into the game late in the second half.
The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home, 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 October games, 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in the Bills’ last six games and 4-0 in the Giants’ last four October games.
Ryno’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Wrong team favored! Take the Buffalo Bills plus the points!
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