Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Bucs Point Spread Prediction

by | Dec 9, 2021 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs Tampa Bay Bucs (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, December 12, 4:25 PM EST

Where: Raymond James Stadium

TV: FOX

Point Spread: Buf +3 / TB -3 (GTBets - Bankroll down? Reward yourself with a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $50 to $500!)

Over/Under Total: 52

The Buffalo Bills visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a week 14 game that looked like a Super Bowl preview about a month ago before the Bills stubbed their toes. The Bills’ woes have led BETANYSPORTS.EU to make them 3 point underdogs and set the game total at 52. The play is to count on the Bills’ troubles to continue and buy a Bucs ticket. Here are three reasons.

This Is Brady Time

While the Bills recent results will grab the headlines this week, the Bucs enter week 14, riding an under-the-radar mini hot streak. They have won and covered the spread in three consecutive games, including two on the road.
Tom Brady always plays his best ball in December and January, and that story is playing out again in 2021. Brady has completed over 70% of his passes during the stretch and averaged 300 yards per game. Tight End Rob Gronkowski returned to provide Brady his favorite third down and red zone target, while wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to play at an elite level. Leonard Fournette has not been the most effective runner this year, which may be a problem down the road, but Fournette has established himself as a legitimate three-down back, catching 58 balls already on the season. Coach Bruce Arians has his team primed to make a run to defend their championship. With the GOAT behind center and weapons all over the field, they will be tough to stop in January and tough to stop this week for the Bills.

Buffalo’s defense is coming off a performance that saw them get steam-rolled on a cold, windy Buffalo night by Bill Belichick and the Patriots on Monday night. Now on a short week, they go to the humidity of central Florida to chase the Bucs around the field. The Bills’ defensive stats are very impressive on paper, but they weren’t so impressive Monday Night when they knew the Pats were going to run every play, and they still allowed 222 rushing yards. This week they know they are going to get a steady diet of Brady working short passing games with some deep shots to Evans sprinkled in, and I don’t think they will be able to stop that either. I think Tampa’s offense will have similar results against the Bills as the Colts and Titans did earlier in the year, scoring 41 and 34 points, respectively. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t risen to the challenge this year, and it doesn’t start this week.

Buffalo’s Offense Isn’t Right

In the past five weeks, Buffalo scored 6 points against Jacksonville, 15 against Indianapolis, and now ten against the Patriots. I understand the conditions were horrible on Monday, but the Bills receivers were not getting any separation. Josh Allen wasn’t seeing open receivers and completed only half of his passes despite mostly being able to throw the ball through the wind. Buffalo doesn’t have a running game they can lean on, with three basically finesse backs and can’t get tough yards between the tackles. On Monday, the backs totaled 60 yards on 19 carries, while Allen scampered for 39 yards on six carries. Buffalo may look to revert to their short passing attack this week, trying to get Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, and Dawson Knox open to move the chains, but that has not had the success in the second half of the season that it did early. The Bills offense will know they have to keep up with Brady and Company, which will put even more pressure on Allen and company.

The Bucs defense has been getting healthy, playing better, and will be ready for the Bills. Tampa’s secondary has been ravaged by injuries but now has Carlton Davis back and may get Richard Sherman back this week. The Buccaneer’s run defense is the best in the league, especially with the recent return of Vita Vea, so Buffalo has no chance to sustain a rushing attack on Sunday. Devin White and Lavonte David are as fast as any pair of linebackers in the league, which will confound the short passing game, and Todd Bowles will bring pressure from all over the formation. Tampa Bay is tied for 4th in the league with 32 sacks. This is the wrong place for an offense that is trying to figure it out to show up at. Look for a dominating performance from Tampa’s defense.

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This Line Should Be More Than 3

Tampa has rounded into a team that is playing like defending champions. Their home field is worth at least 2 points based on the Florida humidity, and good crowds, meaning the line implies the Bucs are only 1 point better than the Bills. That seems hard to believe. Tampa is 5-0 straight up at home and has covered their last four spreads at Raymond James Stadium. Buffalo, on the flip side, lost in a very physical game with their division rivals, has a short week to go to Florida and knows that next week they go to Foxboro for a rematch with the Pats. This team had an excellent chance to be the number 1 seed in the AFC a month ago, and now it’s realistic they won’t make the playoffs. There was a lot of frustration on the Bills sideline on Monday and some finger-pointing after the game. They need to play their best game to beat the defending champs in Tampa, and it’s hard to see that coming this week. I think the line should be at least 4, maybe 4.5.

Lay the Points with the Champs

Play Tampa Bay -3 against the Bills. We get the better defense, the better coach, and the GOAT QB. Note: Professional handicapper Kevin West will start giving out his free NBA and college basketball picks daily starting Monday, December 13th on the Predictem free picks page!

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