Chicago Bears (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday, November 26, 8:30pm />
Where: Lambeau Field Green Bay, WI
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: CHI +9 / GB -9
Over/Under Total: 47.5
This Thursday, eat your turkey, drink your drinks, take a nap, then wake up in time to check out of the of NFCs oldest rivalries when the Bears travel into Green Bay to take on the Packers. These two teams met in week one in Chicago and the Packers came out on top by a 31-23 score. This was the first of six straight wins for Green Bay to start the 2015 season. Since that 6-0 start though, Green Bay has gone 1-3 and their offense has lacked in a big way. However, this past Sunday, the Packers took down Minnesota after losing three straighthave the Packers returned to their form?
The public appears to have faith that the Packers are back in their typical form and should get an easy home win. Currently, the Packers are favored by nine points over the Bears and the total points are set at 47.5 combined points. As of Monday morning, the very early action is on Green Bay to get the cover. 61% of the action is currently on the Packers and as for the over/under, 58% like it to go over the 47.5 total. This is a rather large spread for a rivalry game but this could be a blowout in the making, especially if Green Bay has the offense again clicking.
Green Bay stormed out of the gates at 6-0 in 2015. Some were talking undefeated season and being the hands down best team in the NFC. Well, not so fast. Green Bay is now 7-3 and were a loss to Minnesota this past weekend away from no longer even being in first place in the NFC North. Green Bay did get the win over the Vikings and all is well in cheese land, but the season was very close to becoming much more of a struggle than it should have been with a 6-0 start in such a weak division. In two of the three losses, the Packers offense just absolutely could not score like they are used to. They dropped their first game to Denver by a 29-10 score, which was one of Aaron Rogers worst games ever. Then against the lowly Detroit Lions, Green Bay was held to just 16 points and dropped it 18-16 in the final seconds. On the season though, Green Bay has been a solid team on both sides of the ball. They rank in the NFLs top ten in scoring and they boast the leagues eight best scoring defense only allowing 19.8 points per game. The key to this win is a full team effort. Not in order to win, but to be able to cover the nine points. Green Bay will need to score in the upper 20s or 30s and also play some good defense.
The Bears are always a mystery to me. I can never gauge how they will play week to week. They enter this game at 4-6 overall and sit in third place in the NFC North division behind the Packers and Vikings. In order to have any shot at making a run for the post season, this is a MUST win for Chicago. A second loss to a division rival and falling three games under .500 will pretty much end the Bears season. Statistically in 2015, the Bears are pretty average. They are not highly ranked in any area, but on the flip side, they are not ranked too low in any category either. Through ten games, the Bears have the 15th best rushing offense, the 18th best passing offense, and are scoring right at 21 points per game. To win this game in Lambeau, it will not be easy, but to cover the spread, I think Chicago stands a good chance. Nine points is a lot and if the Bears can just come out and get some stops and score somewhere around 14-17 points, I think they will be in position to keep this game competitive down the stretch.
This is actually a very easy play for me. The Packers in the last month have not been as dominant as they once were. Is it because they lost Jordy Nelson? Are they just going through a lull? Either way, with a nine point spread against a division rival, and so many people are pounding the Packers, I will fade the public, and take the Bears plus the points. Green Bay wins, but they win by something like 23-16.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE BEARS +9 AND UNDER THE POSTED TOTAL OF 47.5 POINTS