Chiefs vs. Bucs Super Bowl Pick ATS

by | Feb 4, 2021 | nfl

Kansas City Chiefs (16-2 SU, 8-10 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5, 11-8), 2/7/21

Time: 6:30 pm ET Sunday, Feb. 7

Where: Raymond James Stadium

TV: CBS

Point spread: KC -3/TB +3 (BetNow) - Deposit $100 to $1000 and receive a 100% REAL CASH bonus!

Money line: KC -165/TB +140

Over/Under: 56.5

The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs go against the guy who’s won more Super Bowls than anybody else, Tom Brady, and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV (that’s 55 for all you non-Romans out there) Sunday evening on the Bucs’ home field in Tampa. This will be the 14th time a Super Bowl match-up is a rematch of a game played earlier in the season, in this case, a three-point Chiefs win back in November. But the teams that won the regular-season match-ups are only 6-7 in those subsequent Super Bowls. How are we playing this game with our free Super Bowl betting pick?

Super Bowl XL Betting Odds

NFL Super Bowl 55 betting odds opened the Chiefs at -3.5 over the Bucs, with an over/under of 57. Early betting action then lopped the hook off that spread and dipped that total to 56.5.

According to Sagarin’s NFL ratings at USAToday.com, KC should be favored by one point for this game.

Super Bowl XV Betting Preview

Kansas City

Kansas City is back in the Super Bowl for the second straight season. The Chiefs played 14-2 during the regular season to win the AFC West again, and one of their losses came in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Chargers. KC also earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the week off that came with it.

The Chiefs then began their postseason with a tough 22-17 divisional-round victory over Cleveland, then beat Buffalo in the AFC championship game two weeks ago 38-24.

Kansas City spotted the Bills the first nine points of the game two weeks ago, then used a 24-3 run spanning the halves to take control. The Chiefs also covered that game as three-point favorites.

KC out-gained Buffalo 439-363. So the Chiefs have out-gained eight of their last nine opponents, and the only time they didn’t was that meaningless game against the Chargers. They’ve also out-rushed six of their previous nine foes.

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Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is back in the Super Bowl for the first time since winning Super Bowl 37 back in 2003. The Buccaneers only sat at 7-5 as they hit the quarter pole on the regular season back in December, then won their last four games in a row to earn the No. 5 seed in the NFC. Tampa then won a wild-card game at Washington 31-23, then won a divisional-round game at New Orleans 30-20, then won the NFC championship game at Green Bay two weeks ago 31-26.

The Bucs, as three-point underdogs two weeks ago, drove the opening possession of the game 66 yards to a touchdown and never trailed from there. Tampa later used a Brady-to-Miller broken-coverage touchdown just before halftime to lead 21-10, then turned a takeaway into the first seven points of the second half and hung on from there for the victory.

Tampa Bay got out-gained by the Packers 381-351 and lost the turnover battle 3-2. But the Bucs turned both Green Bay turnovers into touchdowns, while the Tampa defense held the Packers to seven points off the Tampa turnovers.

Prior to that game, the Buccaneers had out-gained their previous five opponents, and they’ve also out-rushed five of their last six foes.

These two teams just met back in Week 12 of this season, a 27-24 Chiefs victory also in Tampa. Kansas City shot out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter that day and led 27-10 into the fourth. The Chiefs then allowed the Buccaneers to pull within 27-24 but ran the final four minutes off the clock to preserve the victory.

However, Tampa’s late rally gave it the cover as a home dog of 3.5 points.

KC out-gained the Bucs that day 543-417 and won the time of possession by a lopsided 37:23 split.

Also, that game squeezed under a total of 56 because the teams combined to commit three red-zone turnovers.

Super Bowl XV Betting Trends

  • Favorites are 3-1 both SU and ATS over the last four Super Bowls.
  • The AFC is 5-1 both SU and ATS over the last six Super Bowls.
  • Over the last 11 Super Bowls that matched 1-2 seeds against 3-4-5-6 seeds – in other words, teams that earned wild-card byes versus teams that played on wild-card weekend - the higher seeds are just 3-8 SU and an amazing 0-10-1 ATS.

Totals Report

Totals are split 9-9 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.

Overs are 11-8 in Bucs games this season, which are averaging 53 points.

Unders are 3-2 over the last five Super Bowls.

Free Super Bowl LV Pick

Kansas City owns the edge offensively while Tampa Bay owns the edge on defense, and usually, in match-ups like this, we prefer backing the better defense. But Mahomes gets the check-mark at quarterback, the Chiefs own the better running game, and that KC defense is playing better than its No. 16 rankings might indicate. Two weeks ago, the Chiefs limited the Buffalo offense, which ranked No. 2 in the league this season, to less than 300 yards into garbage time. Brady may already own six rings, but Mahomes is after his second, and we believe he’ll get it Sunday. So despite that trend with top seeds flailing against wild-cards, we like KC here, minus the short spread. Bet the Super Bowl and ALL your sports picks each day at -105 reduced odds, instead of the spendy -110 option that your bookie is hammering you with at the web’s best priced odds sportsbook: BetAnySports!