Cleveland Browns (3-8 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS)
NFL Week 13
Date/Time: 4:25 PM ET, December 2, 2012
Where: O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: CLE +1.5/OAK -1.5
Over/Under Total: 45
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Neither the Oakland Raiders or Cleveland Browns will make the playoffs this season, so this game is pretty much for pride. However, the Browns have some solid young talent and have won 3 of their last 6 games while the Raiders have lost their last 4 games. Oakland’s defense has really struggled giving up an average of 42 ppg in their 4-game losing streak.
In their last games the Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-14 while the Raiders lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 34-10.
One thing the Raiders have going for them is that they are 2-3 at home while the Browns have not won a game away from Cleveland this season (0-5).
Carson Palmer had passed for over 300 yards in 3 straight games before last when he only passed for 146 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. He has a couple of solid young WR’s in Denarius Moore, who is averaging over 16 yards per catch, and Brandon Myers and while the Browns rank 21st in the league in pass defense they have held 3 of their last 4 QB’s they have faced to under 200 passing yards. Still, with the Raiders missing their lead RB they will once again lean on the pass and Palmer will have a big game.
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Cleveland has a legit pass rush with the 11th most sacks in the league and they are solid.. Look for them to get to Palmer a few times.
Oakland RB Darren McFadden has missed the last few games with an injury and he is questionable for this game. The Raiders could really use him since the next leading RB after him is Marcel Reece with a grand total of 255 rushing yards. The Raiders did rush for 99 yards in their last game and the Browns stuffed the run in the win over the Steelers, but overall their run D ranks 19th in the league. If McFadden cannot play, the Raiders will struggle to run the ball, but if he does I see him having a good game.
The Raiders’ offense has to be careful with the rock in this game since last week the Browns forced 5 fumbles and had 3 INT.
The Browns did not have a big game on offense in their win over the Steelers, but they did not have to since they forced 8 turnovers. Brandon Weeden passed for 158 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT and while he does not have a very good WR corps he will play well facing an Oakland pass defense that only ranks 24th in the league. Weeden did suffer a concussion in the Pittsburg game, but he is slated to go in this game.
The big weakness of the Raiders’ defense has been their run D, which has been torched this season. Browns’ rookie RB rushed for 85 yards last week against a solid Pittsburgh run defense and in this game he will rush for over 100 yards, as Cleveland will look to establish the run early.
In some betting trends for this AFC match up the Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games facing a team with a winning record and have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games. The Raiders are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and they have an Over record of 7-2 in their last 9 home games.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Trent Richardson should have a field day. I like the Browns to get the money here.
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