Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pick ATS

by | Sep 14, 2021 | nfl

Denver Broncos (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Week 2 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 1PM EDT

Where: TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida


Point Spread: DEN -7/JAC +7 ( - Betting your NFL picks at -105 instead of -110 saves you HUGE money and is 5x better than ANY signup bonus you can receive!)

Over/Under Total: 45.5

The Denver Broncos come to TIAA Bank Field for a week two matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Both teams had very different week one experiences. The Broncos were able to show some of the potential people said they have with a nice 27-13 road win over the Giants. For them to get off to a 2-0 record after two home games would be big, and the signs point that direction against a Jaguars team that appeared somewhat hapless on Sunday in a 37-21 loss to the Texans that wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Let’s break this down and see who has the inside track for a cover on Sunday.

Jacksonville as Bad as They Look?

With a rookie quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and a head coach also making his NFL debut, maybe last week was a case of them getting their feet wet. But to be so thoroughly manhandled by a Houston team that entered the season with even lower hopes than Jacksonville really says something. There are a lot of quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame who started off horribly, so a one-week sample of a team with so many new pieces to work into the mix is hardly enough to indict a team. The first signs, however, were not good.

Even a lesser version of the folly we saw on Sunday would have them in bad standing against a team like Denver. The things Denver does well that they’re hoping elevates their profile this season are things that don’t jump off the screen. Teddy Bridgewater is competent, without anyone really thinking he’s a star. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams form a nice 1-2 punch out of the backfield. Bridgewater works with a deep cast of varied ball-catchers, including receivers Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy (questionable), Tim Patrick, DK Hamler, and tight ends Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam. While not seen as an offensive power, this is a group that can do damage against the Jacksonville “D” we saw in week one. Also helping is a Denver O-line that has subtly upgraded its form.

Good Spot for the Denver Defense?

It’s too early for health to be a concern, and as a result, the Denver defense is stocked to the gills. After struggling massively against a Houston “D” with only a fraction of Denver’s overall power, this looms as a major obstacle for potential Jacksonville backers. Von Miller had two sacks on Sunday, suggesting a bounce-back year for him. Bradley Chubb (questionable) could be ready to make his season debut. That secondary, however, is really coming together and should be awfully tough on the young Jags’ quarterback. New additions Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller really hit the ground running for the Denver “D” and that type of solid corner play, along with their impactful safeties like Justin Simmons, this could be a tough spot for the Jacksonville aerial game.

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Daylight for the Jags

In theory, having a head coach with proven success like Urban Meyer, the best QB prospect over the last decade, and other good pieces in place should have the Jags on the move at some point. James Robinson and Carlos Hyde offer some potential in the backfield. DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Jr., and Marvin Jones are three receivers who can do damage. And while there are holes, their O-line really isn’t all that terrible. Sunday was more about a rookie QB not hitting the ground running and a defense that didn’t make much impact, outside of stud young LB Josh Allen.

Denver isn’t there yet. They’re trying to make a move, but that doesn’t always pan out on a consistent basis. For however optimistic you may be of Denver this season, laying a TD in their second straight road game doesn’t ring of an ideal spot. After a faraway trip to Jersey, this Colorado-based bunch now has to go into Florida, all in a week’s span. This is a team with a lot of youth in key positions. That brings a certain lack of dependability. Bridgewater is hardly infallible at QB, nor is he immune to having bad games. The defense is already a little banged-up, and Jerry Jeudy’s injury on Sunday looked to be somewhat serious. The Broncos were probably made to look a little better than they are on Sunday. The opposite is likely true for the Jags, setting up an image of both teams that might not be entirely accurate.

Denver in this Role?

While the Giants and Jags represent the lower rungs on the NFL power structure, Denver is in a bit of strange territory for a team coming off a 6-win season and having found sustainable success very elusive since Manning stepped away. They have a lot of pieces on defense, but their overall success is predicated on the delicate equation of youth and health. And the latter has been a constant thorn in their side, and it looks like it’s happening again. It’s just not a team where one is supposed to feel comfortable laying points on the road in consecutive weeks.

Lay the Points on the Road Favorite

Week one may have painted too stark of an image, but I do believe Denver has this sort of understated competence that could allow them to make a mini-run this season if health cooperates. It’s still early enough where they are adequately intact enough to present major matchup issues for the Jaguars. This is the kind of season the Jags will be using to set the table. But early on, I foresee more issues on offense that this Denver “D” can readily exploit. I see Denver exploiting the Jaguars’ defense just enough to get some separation and cover the spread. I’ll take the Broncos.

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