Detroit Lions(5-2 SU,4-2-1 ATS) at Denver Broncos(2-4 SU,2-4 ATS), Week8 NFL, Investco Field at Mile High, (Natural Grass) Denver Colorado, Sunday,October 30th, 4:05 PM Eastern
By Jeff Hochman, NFL Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Betting Odds:DET -3/Den +3
Over/Under Total: 43.5
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Tim Tebow makes his first career home start when the Denver Broncos hostthe up-start Detroit Lions. The Lions have lost two straight (both athome)after winning their first 5 games. Last week, they lost to Atlanta
23-16 as 4.5-point home favorites. Two weeks ago, thenew and improved
49’ers handed Detroit its first loss of the season. The Lions are just
4-3 ITS (in the stats) this season.
The Broncos won for the
first time in the eight games they’ve played on the Dolphins’ field.
Miami extended the NFL’s longest losing streak to nine games, leaving
the status of embattled coach Tony Sparano even more tenuous. Tebow led
the comeback with two touchdown passes in the final 2:44 of the fourth
quarter to force overtime, and than Prater kicked a long FG to win the
game. Denver improved to 2-5 in the stats this season.
Lions are 3-0 on the road this season and seem to be more focused away
from the homefans. Detroit will enter this game with the better
offense, defense, and special teams.Detroit is averaging 353 yards of
offense good for 27.7 points per game, while Denver puts up 304 yards
per game good for 20.5 points per game. On defense, the Lions are
holding foes to 334 yards per game good for 19.6 points against. Denver
allows 366 yards per game good for 25.8 points against. The Lions are
ranked No. 6 on special teams while the Broncos are ranked No. 19.
home team will be pumped up for Tebow, who they all wanted to stat from
day one. His stats don’t always look great but he does give the Broncos
a fighting chance thanks to his desire and will to win. How they won
last week’s game I will never know. They looked dead but Tebow magic
took over. It will help the Broncos offense that Tebow is such a great
runner because the Lions possess one of the best pass rushes in all offootball.
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If the Bronocs don’t improveits pass rush Matt
Stafford will pick them apart. Denveris having trouble at just knocking
the opposing QB down and ranked third last in sacks.Calvin Johnson is
having a fantastic season with 679 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while
Stafford has thrown for nearly2,000 yards with 16 touchdowns already.
Look for the Lions to use a lot of no huddle offense in the first half
as they try to catch the Broncos napping. Denver will also use a lot of
no huddle and shotgun formations because that’s what Tebow likes to do
and is most successful at.
With Denver’s win at Miami last
week weare getting better line value in this game. Don’t forget
theLions lost to San Francisco and Atlanta who are much more talented
than this Broncos squad. Tim Tebow is exciting to watch but his accuracy
is still below average. The Broncos receiving corps is sub-par now that
BrandonLloyd was shipped to St. Louis. Willis McGahee is the Broncos
most reliable running back and he has a broken hand. The Lions defense
is fast and the Broncos offense is slow for the most part. Denver’s
passrush will take a hit with Elvis Dumervil and Robert Ayers very
questionable for this game.
The last time Detroit and Denver
played was on November 4th, 2007. The Lions won 44-7 as 3-point home
favorites. Patrick Ramsey and Jon Kitna were the starting QB’s in that
game. Detroit is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games. The over is 20-7 in
Denver’s last 27 home games.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Detroit Lions -3.
The Lions will be focused as they have lost two home games in a row and now play a road game. The Broncos spent a lot of energy in their comeback
win over the Dolphins last week. Take the Lions to bounce back!
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