Early Season NFL Betting Trends
By David A. Lane of Predictem.com
Although it has been but one week, these trends could possibly be the beginning of more to come, or could be flukes, depends on just how important you think week 1 NFL statistics are. Though some teams have played easier opponents than others, one thing can’t be denied, the numbers are what they are: resulting trends from the early returns on pro football games yet played. Never hurts for a bettor to peruse through them while hoping to find an early edge on the sportsbooks numbers.
One game does not a season make, however, the Baltimore Ravens- yes, that perennial defensive force in the AFC north who are 2nd in the league in defense thus far- are also amongst the top five in offense at second in the league in overall offense. Talk about a dangerous team possessing possible offensive talent that can go a long way in the playoffs and you have these same Ravens who were one game away from the Super Bowl last season. Rushing for close to 200 yards in their first attempt and passing for over 300 as well, makes for one well balanced squad, and although it happened against the very weak Kansas City Chiefs, they did score 38 points. What remains to be seen is if they can perform anywhere as close to that this weekend when they go to San Diego and take on the Chargers. As a three point underdog- I love them!
Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo had as perfect a day as any Cowboy QB has ever had, throwing for 344 yards while achieving a league high 140.59 QB rating- guess he didn’t miss Terrell Owens too much? While the Ravens dominated in time of possession with 39:49, the Cowboys are 25th in the league as they had the ball a lowly 26:28- while still somehow scoring 38 points. That number needs to be much higher for them to have continued success this season and they must run the ball more effectively.
This week they are a three point favorite against the always tough New York Giants, I’ll take the Giants and the points all day long here.
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the league so far in defense, allowing a meager 86 yards rushing and 89 yards passing against a Carolina Panthers offense that just couldn’t do anything last weekend. Problem is, they lost their starting QB Donovan McNabb in the process and will need offense to beat this week’s opponent, the New Orleans Saints, who are number one in offense averaging the second most in passing (358 yards second only to New England’s 368). Though the Eagles are somehow one point favorites in this tilt, the Saints are the play as the underdog because Philly will just not be able to keep them off the board enough at home while with backup QB Kevin Kolb running the show, the 26th best offense won’t be able to keep up with them at all.
New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan has made a lot of press this week by saying he’s not the better coach between him and Bill Belichek, and perhaps he’s not, but he’s got his team playing some good football and their game against the Patriots this Sunday could be a bit entertaining.
If the first week was any indication, this could be a decent game despite the Jets 0-8 record and minus 13.4 points average In the last six games against the Pats recently at home in the Meadowlands of New Jersey because they are fourth in offense and second in defense.
If the defense stuffs the run the way they did in week one, Brady is going to have to pass his team to victory here. The 3.5 points the Patriots are favored by will be a gift as no rookie QB- in this case Mark ‘Sanchize’ Sanchez- has ever had much success against the Pats defense and the Jets are minus 13.4 points average in the last six games against the Pats- and that will be no different in this game.
Sure, the season is young but the trends, many of them, live on year after year. Taking advantage before the books get their numbers adjusted down too far is really a key to wagering success. Find the facts that seem important to you and go with them- often times a strong hunch is the right way to go instead of over-analyzing a game. Enjoy the games and good luck this week!
