Falcons vs. 49ers Pick 12/15/19
Atlanta Falcons (4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (11-2 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)
NFL Week 15
Date/Time: Sunday December 15th, 2019. 4:25PM (EST)
Where: Levi’s Stadium San Francisco, C.A.
Over/Under Total: 47
The San Francisco 49ers pulled off a thrilling 48-46 win over the Saints in what was arguably the best game of the NFL regular season. The victory moved the 49ers to 11-2 SU, which is tied with Baltimore for the best record in the NFL and one game better than Green Bay, New Orleans, and Seattle for the #1 seed in the NFC. This Sunday, San Francisco returns home for the first time in 3 weeks in what appears to be a favorable match-up against the Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers are currently listed as 11 point favorites marking the 4th game this season; they have been favored by double digits. In the prior three games as double-digit favorites, San Francisco has failed to cover going 0-2-1 ATS, but I believe they will have an excellent opportunity to reverse that trend on Sunday.
Falcons looking for late season momentum
After a terrible 1-7 SU start in the first eight games, Atlanta has found some momentum in recent weeks winning 3 of the last five games. The Falcons turned things around when they stunned the Saints 26-9 in the Superdome and have been relatively competitive ever since with a pair of wins over the withering Carolina Panthers. Atlanta was previously riddled with injuries. In last week’s victory over Carolina, it marked the first game in nearly two months where QB Matt Ryan, RB Devonta Freeman, WR Julio Jones, and TE Austin Hooper all shared the field at the same time. Unfortunately, Atlanta did not escape the victory over the Panthers without more injury issues as WR Calvin Ridley went down for the year with an abdominal injury.
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Despite the injury, the Falcons are still as healthy as they have been in weeks and appear to be playing their best football of the season. However, in terms of handicapping, I don’t like the circumstances or match-up for Atlanta this week. There is a legitimate trend of flopping performances by east coast teams playing on the west coast and vice versa. It’s not a flawless trend, but when you combine that factor with the match-up this week, it’s something to keep in mind. In terms of the match-up, Atlanta’s offense has relied heavily on the passing game this season with absolutely no rushing threat in the backfield primarily due to an awful offensive line that cannot protect Matt Ryan nor open holes in the run game. Now the Falcons offense will have the misfortune of lining up against the NFL’s top passing defense and pass rush in an extreme mismatch that will favor the 49ers.
Match-ups favor San Francisco over Atlanta
Not only does this match-up heavily favor San Francisco’s defense against Atlanta’s spotty passing attack but the 49ers will also hold a significant advantage on the offensive side of the football. The 49ers have proved to be a strong run-first offense, and they have an impressive backfield consisting of Tevin Coleman, Matt Brieda, and Raheem Mostert. Mostert, once considered the 3rd string option, has exploded over the last two weeks with more than 200 yards rushing and three combined touchdowns. Mostert actually leads the 49ers in rushing on the season and has earned the right to get more touches moving forward. Either way, San Francisco’s backfield will have plenty of options when they attack a subpar Atlanta run-stop defense. I expect the 49ers to have their way on the ground in this home game, and that will open the field for QB Jimmy Garoppolo who has quietly thrown 11 touchdowns over the last four games. Simply put, all match-ups favor San Francisco is this game, and I would not be surprised if this turned into a blowout barring any unforeseen letdown performance.
Atlanta vs. San Francisco betting trends
After a disastrous start to the year, the Falcons have found some momentum going 4-2 ATS in their last six games and winning 3 of the previous 5 outright. Atlanta’s long term trends are less promising with a measly 4-11 ATS record in their previous 15 road trips. The 49ers own a strong betting record of 8-4-1 ATS this season and have hit the “over” in five of their previous seven games. The 49ers are also 12-2 SU in the last 14 games against Atlanta in San Francisco.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: SF -11. Does your bookie sock you with -110 odds or higher? Did you know that you can bet cheaper? The book is undoubtedly better than yours as well, as we’ve advertised them for almost 20 years with ZERO complaints. Betting is simply better at 5Dimes!
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