Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction

by | Dec 17, 2020 | nfl

Houston Texans (4-9 SU, 4-9 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (9-4, 8-5), 12/20/20

Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 20

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium


Point spread: Hous +7/Ind -7 (Get the best teaser odds)

Money line: Texans +265/Colts -335

Over/Under: 51

The Indianapolis Colts are still running down a playoff berth while the Houston Texans are running out of gas, heading into this AFC South bout Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis. But Indianapolis can’t afford a slip-up, playing in tight playoff races, especially against a team it should beat. Can the Colts not just win but also cover a touchdown? Can the Texans play spoiler? And how are we playing this game for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 15 NFL betting odds opened the Colts at -6.5 over the Texans, with an over/under of right around 52. Early betting action then bumped Indianapolis to -7 and dipped that total to 51.

Texans Betting Preview

Houston showed a little life a few weeks back with a 3-1 run but now owns consecutive losses,
including a miserable 36-7 decision at Chicago last week. The Texans, playing as one-point favorites, gave up an 80-yard touchdown run on their first defensive play of the game, fell behind 14-0 early, and trailed 30-7 at the half. Houston never mounted a challenge basically all day against a Bears team that had lost its previous six games in a row.

The Texans got out-gained by Chicago 410-263, out-rushed 169-108, and allowed seven sacks, one for a safety at a point in the second quarter when the game was still up for grabs.

Houston has now been out-gained seven times in its last eight games and out-rushed by each of its last eight opponents.

Two games ago against this Indianapolis team, the Texans also gave up a sack for a safety, scored zero points in the second half, and lost 26-20.

At 4-9 overall, Houston is now just playing out the string on a totally lost season.

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Colts Betting Preview

The Colts, on the other hand, are 4-1 both SU and ATS over their last five games after beating the Raiders in Las Vegas last week 44-27. Indianapolis scored on its first two possessions of the game and led 20-14 at the half. The Colts then let the Raiders get within 20-17 early in the third quarter but pulled away from there for the win and the cover at -2.5.

Indianapolis out-gained Vegas, 456-424, out-rushed the Raiders 212-79, and won the turnover battle 3-0, creating a +16 points differential.

The Colts have now out-gained six of their last eight opponents and out-rushed five of their previous seven foes.

Two weeks ago, Indianapolis trailed this Houston team 10-7 early but led 24-20 at the half, then pitched a shut-out in the second half and won 26-20.

At 9-4 overall, Indianapolis is tied for the lead in the AFC South with Tennessee. However, the Colts lose the tie-breaker with the Titans, based on records in divisional games. But Indianapolis also owns the No. 6 spot in the AFC playoff standings. If the playoffs started today, the Colts would be in Buffalo for a wild-card game against Coach Reich’s old team, the Bills.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played eight common opponents this season; Indianapolis is 5-4 both SU and ATS against the Ravens, Vikings, Jaguars, Titans, Browns, Packers, Lions, and Bears, while the Texans are 3-6 both SU and ATS vs. that slate of foes.

Texans-Colts Recent History

Indianapolis is 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS over the last eight meetings with Houston. Most recently, two weeks ago, the Colts led the Texans 26-20 in the final moments, then got lucky and recovered a Houston fumble inside the Indianapolis 5-yard line to secure the victory.

The Colts covered that day at -3.5, and the game stayed under a total of 50 despite a 44-point first half.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Home teams are 103-104 SU, 99-107 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 136-70 SU, 90-115 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Unders are 7-6 in Texans games this season, which are averaging 50 total points.

Overs are 8-5 in Colts games this season, which are averaging 52 points.

Unders are 7-2 over the last nine meetings between these two teams.

Unders are 103-101 in the NFL this season and 33-24 over the last three weeks.

Free NFL Pick

These teams are headed in different directions this season, but they’re also divisional rivals, and they just played a tough, close game a couple of weeks ago. And even though Houston is now out of the playoff picture and coming off an embarrassing performance last week, we expect a good effort this week, especially from QB Watson. Indianapolis will probably win this game outright, just like two weeks ago, but we’ll take the Texans and the points. Bet this game and ALL your football/basketball/baseball/hockey picks at reduced odds -105 (instead of the more expensive -110 you’re laying) at one of the web’s best sportsbooks! —–> BetAnySports!

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