Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Pick 10/18/20

by | Oct 14, 2020 | nfl

Houston Texans (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-0, 1-3), 10/18/20

Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 18

Where: Nissan Stadium

TV: CBS

Point spread: Texans +3/Titans -3 (BetNow - Deposit $500 and get $500 FREE! This is a real cash bonus too, not a cheesy match play!)

Moneyline: NA

Over/Under: 55

The Tennessee Titans just played a great game Tuesday night, but they’ll be working on short rest when they host the rival Houston Texans for an AFC South divisional bout Sunday afternoon in Nashville. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 6 NFL betting odds opened Tennessee at -2.5 over Houston, with an over/under of 55. Early betting action quickly bumped the Titans to -3.

Texans vs. Titans Set-Up

Houston, in its first game under interim HC Romeo Crennel, just picked up its first win of this season, beating Jacksonville last Sunday 30-14. The Texans hit the board first on a field goal early in the second quarter, fell behind to the Jaguars 7-3 a few moments later, then used a 17-0 run spanning the halves to take control. Houston let the Jags get within 20-14 with 10 minutes left but tacked on the last 10 points of the game to secure the victory and the cover as a 6.5-point favorite.

The Texans out-gained Jacksonville 486-364 and out-rushed the Jags 129-75, although that was the first time this season Houston had done either. Also, while the teams tied the turnover battle 2-2, those TO’s resulted in a +17 points differential for the Texans.

Houston opened this season with a 34-20 loss to defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City, then lost to Baltimore 33-16, then lost to Pittsburgh 28-21, then lost to Minnesota 31-23. The Texans also totally whiffed ATS as dogs of 9.5, 7.5, and 3.5 points and as a three-point favorite against the Vikings. The Texans then lost their head coach, dumping Bill O’Brien, replacing him, for the moment, with longtime NFL coach Crennel.

Tennessee, meanwhile, is 4-0 on the season after bombing Buffalo Tuesday night 42-16. The Titans turned an early lucky takeaway into a touchdown, let the Bills tie the score at 7-7, then took the lead for good on a Derrick Henry TD plunge early in the second quarter. Tennessee led 21-10 at the half, then scored the first touchdown out of the locker room and cruised from there for the outright victory as a home dog of 3.5 points.

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The Titans actually got out-gained by Buffalo 370-334, the third time in four games this season Tennessee’s been out-gained. But the Titans won the turnover battle 3-0, creating a +21 points differential.

Tennessee opened this season with a 16-14 win over Denver but couldn’t cover as a 3.5-point favorite. The Titans then edged Jacksonville 33-30 but couldn’t cover at -7. Tennessee then won at Minnesota 31-30 but couldn’t cover at -3. So while Tennessee was 3-0 SU heading into Tuesday night, it was also 0-3 ATS.

The Titans had their Week 4 game with Pittsburgh postponed, creating an expected two-week bye.

Texans-Titans Recent History

These division rivals have split their season series each of the last four years, both SU and ATS. Last year Houston won in Nashville 24-21, while two weeks later, Tennessee won at Houston 35-14.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Houston is 25-17 SU, 20-18-4 ATS with Deshaun Watson as the starter at quarterback.
  • Tennessee is 14-3 SU but only 7-9-1 ATS with Ryan Tannehill as the starter at QB.
  • Home teams are 40-36 SU, 34-41 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 51-25 SU, 35-40 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 3-2 in Texans games this season, which are averaging 50 total points against an average over/under of 51.
  • Overs are 3-1 in Titans games this season, which are averaging 53 points against an average total of 47.
  • Overs are 43-33 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Tennessee just put on a wonderful performance against Buffalo Tuesday night, but that might leave the Titans open to a letdown this week, on short rest. Meanwhile, teams often get a jolt out of coaching change, and perhaps Houston can take advantage of a fresh start. And while the Texans are only 1-4, they’ve played what Sagarin at USAToday.com ranks as the fifth-toughest schedule in the league so far. We love what Coach Vrabel is doing with his Tennessee team, but we’re betting against him in this spot. We’ll take the Texans and the points. Note: Don’t forget that we also offer free weekly ncaa football picks!

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