Kansas City Chiefs (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
NFL Week 2
Date/Time: Sunday, September 16th, 2012/1:00 p.m. EST
Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, N.Y.
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KC +3/BUF -3
Over/Under Total: 45
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Two AFC teams that were spanked in their regular season openers last Sunday
will try and rebound in week two action when the Kansas City Chiefs
travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills
Sunday at 1:00 p.m. on CBS.
Kansas City fell apart in the second half of their, 40-24, loss to Atlanta last week at home in Arrowhead, giving up 17 straight points following halftime to turn a close 20-17 game into a runaway for the Falcons. The Chiefs have a lot to build on, since they did outgain the Falcons and owned the time of possession battle too, but three turnovers crushed any hopes of staying in the game until the final whistle.
Buffalo just failed to show up against the New York Jets, period, as the Jets ran up a, 41-7, lead just minutes into the third quarter before the Bills added a few mop-up scores to put lipstick on their 48-28 loss last Sunday. If playing terrible wasnt enough, the Bills also got banged up in the game too losing both running back Fred Jackson (knee) and WR David Nelson (ACL done for season) for a significant amount of time.
With two teams with nowhere to go but up, the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas punted on setting the betting line by opening the KC-Buffalo matchup with Buffalo as the standard 3-point favorites at home. So far the line has yet to move since it opened, partly because they are 13 better NFL games on Sunday and also that nobody can get a real feel for either of these teams right now.
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The over/under total opened at 44.5 and has only moved slightly to 45 at most sportsbooks to bring to outcome of a push back into play on Sunday.
Clearly the offenses of both of these teams will need to step up their games come Sunday in order to get their first victory of the 2012 season.
Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions and did not protect possession of the ball, and everyone knows that if you turn the ball over you simply dont win in the NFL. Probably the lone bright spot for the Bills offense was the play of second-year RB C.J. Spiller, who ran for a career-high 169 yards and a score in place of Jackson.
But as I mentioned before, the Chiefs didnt protect the ball either as their three turnovers also cost them their opener versus Atlanta. QB Matt Cassel threw two picks and struggled at times in his return to play following last years injury, while RB Jamaal Charles ran for 87 yards in his first action back following his torn knee last year.
But as bad as both offenses were, these two teams are built on defense and neither squad showed up last week. Buffalo, who went out and beefed up the defense by adding Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to the defensive line in the offseason, allowed 384 yards to the Jets and only forced one turnover and got zero pressure on Mark Sanchez the whole game.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense that carried the team all of last season laid a dud against Atlanta forcing zero turnovers and zero sacks as Matt Ryan had his way all day long. It should help that the Chiefs will get back DE Tamba Hali from his suspension, and they might get corner Brandon Flowers back as well (heel-questionable). One of these units will have to step it up on Sunday, but figuring out which one it will be (if either of them step up) is the hardest part of handicapping Sundays game.
Part of the reason the Bills might have been considered the favorite, other than the fact they are at home, is because they absolutely destroyed the Chiefs, 41-7, last year in Arrowhead. Chiefs fans will remember that game as the one that Charles blew his knee out in, while bettors will remember the easy Buffalo cover as 3.5-point underdogs on the road. The Bills have actually won four of the last five meetings between these two teams (since 2005), including the last time they met in Buffalo back in 2005 when the Bills won, 14-3 (and covered as 2.5-point favorites).
Another reason the oddsmakers set the Bills as favorites may be because the Bills have owned this series over the years as far as wagering and gambling goes. Buffalo is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and also sport a solid 8-2 ATS record going back to the 1996 season. Buffalo is also 2-0 ATS at home in the series, so theres plenty of reasons to like the Bills to rebound in this spot.
What will also be interesting to see is how well these two defenses play, since the under wager is also a strong betting trends play this week. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 years and is 2-0 in the two games played in Buffalo.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Bills aren’t as bad as they portrayed in week 1 and call me nuts but the offense seems to click better with CJ Spiller as the starter at RB. I like the Bills to win an ugly game.
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