LA Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Week 12 Odds & Pick ATS

by | Nov 24, 2021 | nfl

Los Angeles Chargers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS)

Week 12 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 4:05PM EST

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

TV: CBS

Point Spread: LAC -3/DEN +3 (Betanysports - Stop wasting your hard earned money! Stop laying -110 odds! Start laying only -105 here!)

Over/Under Total: X

The Los Angeles Chargers come to Mile High on Sunday to take on the Denver Broncos in an AFC West battle. This week 12 showdown is a fork-in-the-road moment for the Broncos, coming off a bye that followed a tough 30-13 loss to the Eagles a few weeks ago. At 5-5, the season isn’t lost and the Broncos could still salvage something. It won’t be easy against a Chargers team that is in the midst of trying to put together their playoff case. On Sunday Night Football, they registered a morale-boosting 41-37 win over the Steelers, surviving a strong Steelers’ close with some big plays of their own. The old Chargers would have never ended up winning that game after the Steelers came back from being down by 14 with under 5 minutes left to take the lead. But big plays on both sides of the ball allowed the Bolts to get the win. Who can get the cover in Mile High this week?

Closer Matchup Than it Seems

It seems that no matter what state each of these two teams is in individually, this tends to be a close game. A look at recent matchups reveals a string of close affairs dating back years. We’re talking really close, like just a point or a few points in a lot of instances. And sometimes one team was doing a lot better. But regardless of what each team is experiencing, they almost always come back to center when they face each other.

Denver’s Fall Overstated

After the Broncos started losing, the narrative became that they were given a cushy start to the season that made them look good, only to come crashing down to earth when they played the real teams. And it’s hard to say that’s completely untrue, with that sentiment bolstered by a hard-to-watch big loss at home to the Eagles. But they are 5-5 and a few weeks ago, they smashed the Cowboys on the road. Throw one-score losses with the Browns and Steelers into the mix and they’re not the week-to-week laughingstock that some perceive them to be. They can certainly hit low depths without much warning, but there is a flip-side to that coin.

If you think about it, the Broncos could be called overachievers. It’s week 12 and they’re still at least vaguely in it. And that’s with sometimes-dicey QB play with Teddy Bridgewater, an offensive line and defense decimated with injuries, key players missing from other areas, and without there being anything that they seem particularly good at. But they have some deceptive balance on offense with a sneaky two-headed run-game with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams and a receiver crew with a lot of talent, along with good tight end play from time to time.

Avenues to a Cover for Denver

This is a familiar divisional spot for the Chargers, but it’s still not typically an easy place to play. While the Chargers were slugging it out with the Steelers last week, the Broncos were at home dug in and gathering their bearings while resting. With their last road-game a November 7 win in Dallas, Denver has been home for a while, breathing that high altitude air, while focusing solely on the task at hand. Having an extra week to ruminate on that home-loss could have the Broncos coming out with a little extra edge on Sunday.

The Denver defense has lost a little something from the sheer amount of personnel losses this season. What’s on the field now isn’t what they had in mind in the preseason, when hope was abundant on this side of the ball. Stopping Austin Ekeler with a front-seven that isn’t in peak-form could be tough, but their secondary has held together admirably during this stretch—at least for the most part. Only three teams have allowed fewer points than the Broncos and while it doesn’t manifest every week, they are just a thorn in the side of certain offenses more than what it would seem on paper. We’ve seen that manifest in recent years, when a high-flying Chargers’ offense hit a wall in this matchup.

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Both Sides of the Chargers

Going against Denver, the Bolts have a pronounced firepower differential, particularly on offense. At root, the Chargers have their QB of the future and the Broncos do not. The Chargers have big-talent weapons on offense who thrive more often than not. The Broncos have talent that manifests some weeks and disappears in other games, often times without much warning. And while the Bolts have dealt with a lot of injuries, that’s an area where the Broncos have probably been hit a little harder.

It’s just that for the Bolts, their recipe for success has not hit a level of automaticity or bankability enough to render the Broncos’ cause hopeless. There was last week’s shootout where they almost blew a big late lead to a Steelers team coming off a tie with Detroit. And massive struggles with teams like Philly, Cleveland, and Washington suggest that the Broncos are hardly out of their element in this divisional matchup.

Take the Road Favorite

This is not a pick made with the utmost confidence, but no good bet should be made without paying due respect to the other side. Denver is the kind of team that can be really good in a one-week window. On both sides of the ball, we’ve seen a wide range of form from the Broncos. In this matchup, I sense a close game, with the better Chargers’ offense helping them nose ahead late, as they cross the wire with their head poking ahead. I’ll take the Chargers to win and cover in what should be a tough AFC West matchup.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers minus 3 points. Bet your Week 12 NFL predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook! The BEST bonus online from a LEGIT sportsbook!

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