Lay the Number: Commanders vs. Seahawks Pick

Washington Commanders (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)
Week 10 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point Spread: WAS +6.5/SEA -6.5 (Bovada)
Money Line: WAS +230, SEA -280
Over/Under Total: 46

The Washington Commanders battle the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on Sunday in week ten NFC action. The Commanders were able to eke out a 20-17 road win against the Patriots last week, trying to hang in there at 4-5 with a chance to go to .500 this week. It’s a tough road test, though, against a Seattle team that will be looking to bounce back from their low point of the season thus far, falling to the Ravens 37-3 last week. Can Seattle get things back in order, or will the Commanders prove to be a thorn in their sides?

Good Spot for Seattle?

Even a Washington backer has to entertain the chance that this is a good home spot for the Seahawks, looking to fight it out with the Niners in the NFC West and needing wins like this. Last week was a disaster on both sides of the ball and could be a sign of some incoming dysfunction. This is a team on a run of success dating back to last season where it always seems their winning-formula is a delicate one, so it’s something worth considering. But a lot of teams will look bad on the road against the Ravens when they have both sides of the ball cooking like they did last Sunday.

It’s just that when facing a good home offense like what Seattle has with a vital aerial attack and a running-game that can be impactful, this Washington defense falls into question. Sure, last week, even after trading away two of their better defensive players, they still held the Patriots to 17. And there have been other times this season where the supposedly dilapidated Commanders’ defense never showed up. But there has also been a clear distinction in how this Washington “D” performs against so-so offenses and ones like what the Seahawks are capable of bringing to the table.

Not a Bad Case for Washington This Week?

Again, last week might be a one-off for a Seattle defense that had otherwise been serviceable up until that point, giving up a combined 46 points in their previous four games. It’s also possible that this Washington offense can start seeing some things come together. While the point-totals aren’t resounding, rookie QB Sam Howell is putting forth some nice performances, with receivers Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson coming to life more as of late. No one in the backfield will knock anyone’s socks off, but between Brian Robinson, Jr., Antonio Gibson, and Howell’s wheels, they often do a pretty good job. There aren’t many stars if any on this Washington offense, but a plethora of serviceable talent has sometimes been enough to get the job done for them. Seattle’s defense is better than they were made to look last week, but they’re still no sure bet against a Washington offense at least showing some positive signs.

Questions for This Week

Seattle faces some scrutiny after last week, and they need to bounce back on Sunday against a team still out there trying for head coach Ron Rivera, with a slew of young players on both sides of the ball looking to make their mark. It’s just that a defense that might struggle a lot in certain spots that got a pass last week taking on a sideways New England bunch might be a major obstacle for the Commanders this week. That offense is coming around some, but hardly enough to overcome a shambolic defense like what we’ve seen at times this season. With the big-play ability of Smith and his receiving crew with guys like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and a coming-around Jaxon Smith-Njigba, along with Kenneth Walker, II., this could be a spot where the Washington defense suffers. You want to defer to the expertise of a successful guy like Ron Rivera, but getting rid of Sweat and Young on a “D” that was already in the dumps just has to bite them, right?

Then again, is Seattle in a funk? They came roaring out of the gates with some high point-totals, and while they kept winning until last week, they haven’t topped 24 points since week three. On the one hand, that speaks well of their defense, able to keep this team moving forward even with the offense ebbing some in the last handful of games. It’s a part of the winning Seattle recipe that perhaps hasn’t gotten enough praise, with showings like last week’s making it hard. But does this more-subdued offensive approach of late also put a pallor of doubt on Seattle in this role as sizeable home favorites? Still, if Seattle were to rediscover their peak form on offense and put up 30-40, why not here? It just sets up as such a good spot with Seattle, with the uncertainty surrounding Seattle rightfully giving some pause.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

From a value standpoint, Washington might not be a bad choice. Seattle doesn’t appear to be firing on all cylinders, and you could easily imagine Washington winning this game. If Seattle comes out flat, it’s one of those games where a Seattle backer will know pretty soon that covering this spread is going to be a tall task. I think that while the Washington defense can be coached up and has enough talent to withstand middling offenses, a pumped-up Seattle home offense with an ax to grind just might be all wrong for them from a matchup standpoint. I’m going with the Seahawks in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Seattle Seahawks minus 6.5 points.

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