Miami Dolphins (3-4) +3, 49 O/U at Denver Broncos (4-3)
Mile High Stadium, Denver, C.O., 4:05PM Eastern, Sunday
by Jay Horne of Predictem.com
AFC action picks up in the mile high city this Sunday when the Denver Broncos play host to the Miami Dolphins. Nearly one game separates these two teams in terms of their season records. However, the Broncos are in first place in the lackluster AFC West and the Dolphins are bottom of the AFC East. It may be hard to believe that a team with a season record of 4-3 could be leading their division. However, that is the place the Denver Broncos have found themselves in and they look to take advantage of still being in the playoff picture.
Denver looks to rebound after dropping two straight losses including a 41-7 massacre last week to the hands of the New England Patriots. Despite the fact the Broncos may not have had the start they wished, they still find themselves 1 games out front in the AFC West. The AFC West is the worse division in the NFL considering their combined record is 10-19. Luckily that gives the Broncos a great shot at making the playoffs despite they are only 4-3. If they simply win the games they are suppose to they should make the playoffs, and Miami has to be one of those games they are suppose to win.
After also dropping two straight games in previous weeks, the Dolphins bounced back last week grabbing a victory over the Buffalo Bills. In that game, QB Chad Pennington threw for a season high 312 yards. Pennington has had a great year tacking up 1710 yards, completing 69% of his passes for 7 TDs. Over the last 3 weeks, Pennington has averaged 297 yards per game through the air. The Miami passing attack has been getting better week by week and perhaps is ready to explode come Sunday afternoon.
15 TEAM PARLAYS? 20 POINT TEASERS? ACTION POINTS?
PLEASERS? FIND THEM ALL AT 5DIMES
Denver has been tremendous on the offensive side of the ball and horrible on the other side of the ball. Offensively, the Broncos rank #2 in the NFL in total yards accountable for 381 yards per game. They are responsible for scoring 24 points per game and a passing attack that ranks #3 in the NFL at 263 yards per game. Defensively, the Broncos have struggled in every category. They have given up nearly 28 points per game placing them as one of the five worse defenses in the NFL. Overall their defense could arguably be the worst in the league. Despite the offenses success the Broncos have given up more points than they have posted and that will have to change if they plan on winning football games.
On the subject of weak defenses, the Dolphins defense has not been to stellar this year as well. Miami has given up nearly 21 points per game this season and really has had trouble stopping opposing offenses. While they may not be as bad as the Denver defense, there is some much needed room for improvement. Offensively, the Dolphins have been progressing game by game. They have tallied up an average of the 350 yards per game and responsible for nearly 20 points per game. The Dolphins have found success in the arm of QB Chad Pennington and have been able to move the ball through their passing attack. Pennington and company will try to expose a poor Denver secondary this Sunday in route to victory.
Vegas has listed the game favoring the Denver Broncos by a field goal at -3. Early betting numbers show that the public is in favor of Denver to cover the spread by a large margin. Nearly 85% of early bettors have sided with the Broncos ATS. The over/under for the contest has been posted at 49. Early numbers suggest the majority of the public favoring the over total for the contest. Moneyline numbers have Denver at -190 and Miami at +160.
Broncos QB Jay Cutler has been solid this season. Despite throwing 7 picks on the year Cutler has amassed 1842 total yards averaging 263 yards per game which is 3rd most in the NFL. Cutler has completed 64% of his passes for 13 TDs and will have a great chance to rack up some big numbers this weekend.
Miami has been good so far this year in taking down the spread. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The total has gone over in 4 of the Dolphins last 6 games, including 3-0 on the over in their last 3 road games. Denver is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 at home. Denver is 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games. These two teams have not squared off in the last three seasons, but Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Denver.
Jays Pick - Anybody see a defense on the field? Take the OVER 49.