Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos Week 11 Pick

by | Nov 19, 2020 | nfl

Miami Dolphins (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (3-6, 5-4), 11/22/20

Time: 4:05 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 22

Where: Mile High Stadium

TV: CBS

Point spread: Mia -3.5/Den +3.5 (MyBookie - A book worth checking out! A few weeks ago they offered the KC Chiefs at +45 with a max bet of $200! They do stuff like this pretty often to reward their members or their loyalty! A FUN Sportsbook! We can get you a 100% bonus up to $300 if you sign up through our link too! Use bonus code: PREDICT100)

Money line: Dolphins -180/Broncos +150

Over/Under: 45

The Miami Dolphins continue what they hope is a march toward the playoffs when they hit Denver Sunday afternoon to wrangle with the Broncos. Miami owns a five-game winning streak while Denver is 1-3 its last four times out. The Dolphins haven’t been lined as favorites on the road much over recent seasons, but they are for this game. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 11 NFL betting odds opened this game at right around a pick ’em, with an over/under of 45. Early betting action then steamed the Dolphins into 3.5-point favorites.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Miami surfs a five-game winning streak into Sunday, after beating the Chargers last week 29-21. The Dolphins turned an early blocked punt into a touchdown, then drove their first real possession of the game 88 yards to another score and led 17-7 at the half. Miami let the Chargers get within 17-14 midway through the third quarter but used a 12-0 run to secure the victory and the cover as a two-point favorite.

The Dolphins only produced 280 yards of total offense last week but only allowed 273 yards of Chargers offense. But actually, Miami has only out-gained three of its nine opponents this season.

The Dolphins are 3-0 both SU and ATS since replacing veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback with rookie Tua Tagovailoa. However, the Miami offense, which averaged 354 yards per game with Fitzpatrick, is only averaging 246 YPG with Tagovailoa.

Two weeks ago, the Dolphins used an early defensive touchdown to beat Arizona 34-31. Three weeks ago, Miami got a pair of defensive/special teams scores to beat the Rams 28-17. The Dolphins got out-gained in those two games by a combined 456 yards.

At 6-3 overall, Miami trails first-place Buffalo by just a half-game in the AFC East, and owns the No. 6 spot in the AFC standings. If the playoffs started today, the Dolphins would play the Bills in an AFC wild-card game.

More Picks: Falcons vs. Saints Pick ATS >>>

Broncos Betting Preview

Denver, meanwhile, after showing some promise with a 3-1 run, is coming off consecutive losses, including a 37-12 decision at Las Vegas last week. The Broncos fell down 7-0 five minutes into the game, then pulled to within 7-6 and briefly took the lead late in the second quarter. But a Drew Lock touchdown pass was negated by a penalty, and the next play resulted in a turnover. Denver ended up allowing a 23-0 Vegas run spanning the halves, fading to defeat and whiffing against the spread as a 3.5-point dog.

The Broncos got out-gained by the Raiders 357-313, out-rushed 203-66, got dominated in time of possession by a 37:23 split, and lost the turnover battle 5-0, resulting in at least a -13 points differential.

Prior to last week, Denver had out-gained four of its previous five opponents. But the Broncos have committed an NFL-high 21 turnovers this season and own a -12 turnover ratio.

Two weeks ago, Denver fell down to Atlanta 27-6, rallied to within 34-27 but couldn’t get any closer, and lost.

At 3-6 overall, the Broncos trail Miami by three games in the scrum for the second AFC wild-card spot.

On the injury front, Broncos QB Lock is listed as questionable for this game with sore ribs. If he can’t go back-up Brett Rypien, who quarterbacked Denver to a victory over the Jets back in October despite throwing three interceptions, would get the start.

These two teams have played three common opponents so far this season; Miami is 2-1 both SU and ATS against the Chargers, Jets, and New England, while Denver is 3-0 both SU and ATS vs. those three foes.

These teams last met three seasons ago, a 35-9 Dolphins win. But that’s already several quarterbacks ago for both teams.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Miami is 3-0 both SU and ATS with Tua Tagovailoa as the starter at QB.
  • Miami is 11-14 SU and 16-9 ATS under Coach Flores.
  • Denver is 10-15 SU, 14-11 ATS under Coach Fangio.
  • Home teams are 76-70 SU, 69-76 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 96-49 SU but only 63-81 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 16-37 SU, 28-23 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Unders are 5-4 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 48 total points against an average over/under of 48.

Overs are 5-4 in Broncos games this season, which are averaging 49 points against an average O/U of 45.

Overs are 78-66 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Miami is a trendy pick as of late, with its young quarterback and a five-game winning streak, but the Dolphins are a still a bit iffy. They can’t rely on defensive and special teams touchdowns every week, and their recent good fortune only inflates the spread. Meanwhile, Denver might be down to its back-up quarterback, but if it can just cut down on the turnovers, it might make some progress. Miami’s been playing with fire for about the last three weeks. We’ll take the Broncos and the points in this spot. Bet this and ALL your NFL predictictions each week at -105 at BAS! (See our BetAnySports Sportsbook Review). Making the switch to reduced vigorish will save you TONS of cash! (Thousands of dollars over the years!)