Falcons vs. Saints Pick ATS 11/22/20

by | Nov 19, 2020 | nfl

Atlanta Falcons (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-2, 4-5), 11/22/20

Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 22

Where: The Superdome

TV: Fox

Point spread: Atl +5/NO -5 (GTBets - Deposit $100 to $500 and get that same amount EXTRA added to your sports betting account!)

Money line: Falcons +190/Saints -230

Over/Under: 51

The New Orleans Saints are right in the running for the top seed in the NFC but they’ll be without quarterback Drew Brees for the next month or so. The Atlanta Falcons, meanwhile, started terribly this season and canned their head coach but are now trending in a better direction. That’s the situation heading into this NFC South showdown Sunday afternoon at the Superdome. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 11 NFL betting odds opened New Orleans at -6.5 over Atlanta, with an over/under of 51. Early betting action then dropped the Saints a point and a half, to -5.

Falcons Betting Preview

Atlanta started 0-5 this season and fired its head coach. But the Falcons are 3-1 both SU and ATS since then, after downing Denver two weeks ago 34-27. Atlanta then enjoyed last week off.

The Falcons hit the board on their first four possessions of the game against the Broncos and led 20-3 at the half. Atlanta pushed that advantage to 27-6 before allowing Denver to score three basically meaningless touchdowns in the fourth quarter, creating a slightly misleading final score.

The Falcons also held on for the cover as five-point favorites.

Atlanta got out-gained by the Broncos 405-363 but that stat is also misleading, considering about two-thirds of the yardage the Falcons defense gave up came in prevent mode.

Prior to that Atlanta had out-gained its previous three opponents.

Also, the only game the Falcons have lost over the last month came on the final play against Detroit.

At 3-6 overall Atlanta may trail the Rams by three games in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot, but it’s not dead yet.

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Saints Betting Preview

New Orleans, meanwhile, rides a six-game winning streak into Sunday, after beating San Francisco last week 27-13. The Saints actually spotted the 49ers the first 10 points of the game, then used a 27-0 run spanning the halves to take control, on their way toward victory and the cover as favorites of 9.5 points.

New Orleans got out-gained by San Francisco 281-237 but also out-rushed the 49ers 114-49 and won the turnover battle 4-2, creating at least a +14 points differential.

The Saints have now out-gained seven of their last eight opponents and out-rushed six of their last seven foes.

New Orleans won last week despite losing QB Drew Brees to a serious ribs injury in the second quarter. Back-ups Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill then combined to hit on 6/10 throws for 63 yards and rush for 43 yards in relief.

As of this writing it appears Winston will get the start for the Saints this week.

At 7-2 overall New Orleans leads the NFC South by a half-game over second-place Tampa Bay and only trails Green Bay by a tie-breaker in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the upcoming NFC playoffs.

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Falcons-Saints Recent History

New Orleans is 4-1 both SU and ATS over the last five meetings with Atlanta. Last year these teams split their two games, each winning on the others’ home field. First, the Falcons upset the Saints at the Superdome 26-9, winning outright as 14-point dogs. Three weeks later New Orleans won in Atlanta 26-18, covering at -7.

Also, both those games played under their totals of 51.5 and 48.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Atlanta is 3-1 both SU and ATS under interim HC Raheem Morris.
  • Atlanta is 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog.
  • New Orleans played 5-0 both SU and ATS last season without Drew Brees at QB.
  • Home teams are 76-70 SU, 69-76 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 96-49 SU but only 63-81 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Overs are 5-4 in Falcons games this season, which are averaging 55 points against an average over/under of 52.

Overs are 7-2 in Saints games this season, which are averaging 54 points against an average O/U of 49.

Overs are 78-66 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Atlanta blew a couple games earlier this season and later lost a close one. A couple plays here and there and the Falcons could easily be 5-4. Plus, they’re playing better ball as of late. New Orleans, meanwhile, comes in hot, but there’s no doubt they’ll miss Brees. Atlanta is susceptible to the pass but Winston is susceptible to throwing interceptions. This game looks destined to come down to a couple plays late, perhaps decided by a field goal, so we’ll grab the Falcons and the points. Bet your Week 11 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at BetNow Sportsbook!