Miami Dolphins (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. New York Jets (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 29, 1:00pm
Where: MetLife Stadium East Rutherford, NJ
TV: CBS
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: MIA +3 / NYJ -3
Over/Under Total: 42.5
This Sunday the Dolphins will leave the beautiful weather in sunny Miami, Florida and head up to East Rutherford to take on the Jets in an AFC East division game. The Dolphins come in sitting in fourth place in the division at 4-6 while the Jets are in second place at 5-5. This is the second time these two have met this season. Last time, back in week four, the Jets went into Miami and came away with a 27-14 win over the Fish. Both teams have been pretty average this season and this game could be the one that seals the non playoff fate for either team. A loss and it is pretty much over, a win, and there is still a glimmer of hope for an AFC wild card berth.
The Jets open as a three point home favorite in this game over the Dolphins. The total points are set at 42.5. The betting public is liking the home team so far with 55% of the action riding on them while the over under action is just about even. On the season, both teams are about the same against the spread. Both Miami and New York have covered the spread just four times in 2015. Here are a few trends to take a look at when trying to decide to pick here: The Miami Dolphins have covered the week twelve spread in each of the last five seasons while the Jets are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against a division opponent. This should be a close one.
The Dolphins started the season with a win over the Redskins then went on to lose three straight. After a horrible showing in London, they fired their head coach and named Dan Campbell the interim. Since that time, the Dolphins have not exactly been world beaters, but you do sense more of an upbeat attitude in the locker room and on the field. Miami is much more competitive than they were in the first quarter of the season. Statistically, the Dolphins are just as mediocre as their record. Miami ranks 21st in passing yards, 19th in rushing yards, and they are only averaging 20 points scored per game which ranks them as the 26th scoring team in the NFL. The biggest disappointment this year has been the defense though. Bringing in Ndamukong Sue was supposed to solidify an already decent defensive line. The Miami secondary has actually played decent as well the last couple of seasons, but this year, something just isnt right. This weekend against the Jets though, the Dolphins will need to do a better job on defense. In three of their losses, they have given up 30+ points while only averaging the 20 per contest. This is not a recipe for winning in professional football. If Miami can keep the Jets in the teens this game, I like the Dolphins chances.
The Jets started out the 2015 season as one of the biggest surprises when they jumped out to a 4-1 record. Well, since that time, the record has reversed and they are currently on a 1-4 run leaving them at 5-5 overall and five games behind first place New England. Of course, no one is catching the Patriots but the Jets, at .500, still have an outside shot to get one of the AFC wild card spots. A win to get them over the .500 mark would help them tremendously heading down the home stretch of the regular season. On the season, New York has positioned themselves as one of the better defenses in the NFL. They rank in the leagues top ten scoring defenses and in four games this season, have held their opponent to 17 points or less. The offense has not been too bad with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the QB. New York ranks 14th in the NFL in scoring, and they also have the 14th best run game too. The key to covering this game at home and winning is to play a complete game. This game could go either way, and I think these two teams are pretty even. Eliminate mistakes and score points. I believe the Dolphins will have some success scoring early on, but in the end, the Jets need to put this game away with defensive stops and late scores.
This is a very tough game to predict. I can absolutely see the outcome going any direction. Neither team has been overly impressive this season, but neither team is a bad team either. I like a close, hard fought contest that goes down to the very end. And with that, I will take the underdogs.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Miami Dolphins +3 on the road.
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