Mid-Season Super Bowl Odds
We’re approaching the midway point of the 2019 NFL season, and it’s an excellent time to catch up on the odds for each team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The AFC and NFC champs will meet on February 2 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. 5DIMES continues to offer Super Bowl odds for every team, so let’s see which team we should invest in.
We’ll look at this wager by conferences, with AFC first available at 5Dimes.
New England Patriots: +260
No shocker, the Pats are the favorite, and it isn’t even close. Is it possible there is any value on Brady and Belichick walking away with another ring? I don’t think so. New England is well on its way to clinching the AFC East and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their opponents are scoring 8 points per game, and their average margin of victory is 25 points, but their schedule has been ungodly easy. The schedule gets a lot tougher, with their next six games coming against teams that should make the playoffs. The offense didn’t look good against the Bills, and may not be as good as their stats suggest. Their receivers are mediocre, and their O-Line has a lot of question marks. I expect the Pats to drop a couple of the next six games, which should bump up their odds up and provide a little more value. Still, I think the Pats are the number 1 seed in the AFC, so the key question for all of the AFC contenders is who can go into Foxboro and beat the Champs. I would pass on the Pats now, but if they somehow have a two-game losing streak and the odds go up to about +400, it might be worth a play.
Kansas City Chiefs: +1200
KC will be without MVQ QB Patrick Mahomes for a few weeks that may affect their ability to get the second AFC bye but doesn’t impact their ability to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs defense has been taking some heat lately, but they have had some critical injuries, including their best pass rusher Chris Jones. Jones will only miss a few weeks, and DC Steve Spagnulo should have the D playing better as we get to playoff time. But betting on KC is betting on their offense. They can outscore any opponent on any given Sunday, including the Patriots in Foxboro. If you think the Chiefs can overcome the Pats in Foxboro, I would suggest waiting for this number will go up after a loss or two while Mahomes is out.
Baltimore Ravens: +1800
I’m not buying into the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is fun to watch, and he is a human highlight film, but I don’t see him winning three games against the best teams in the AFC and then the Super Bowl this year. Baltimore doesn’t have the receivers to keep defenses honest, and Jackson isn’t a good enough thrower yet to elevate mediocre receiver talent. Baltimore’s defense got better when they traded for Marcus Peters, and when Jimmy Smith comes back, the secondary will be solid, but the front 7 is nothing special and has only recorded nine sacks in the six games since the opener against Miami. Jackson may have some super bowl championships in his future, but not this year.
Indianapolis Colts: +3000
All signs point to Frank Reich being a super bowl winning coach, but could it happen this year? Jacoby Brissett has settled in nicely as the starting quarterback and has proven he can rise to the challenge of the big game. They have one of the best offensive lines in the league that will travel well in January and could go to Foxboro and keep their quarterback upright. Indy can run the ball and playmaker T.Y. Hilton is capable of blowing the top off of a defense. But what about the defense. They played at a super bowl level against the Chiefs but have so far not been consistent enough to believe they can shut down 3 or 4 playoff teams in consecutive weeks. The offense isn’t good enough to win shootouts today, but give Brissett 10 more starts and come January he might be ready to. At 30:1, a play on the Colts is a good investment. They have as good of a chance at beating the Pats as any other AFC team, and the odds are worth a play.
Houston Texans: +3500
If the key to winning a super bowl is the quarterback, Deshaun Watson is a good choice to hitch your wagon to. If Watson were playing behind a better offensive line, it would be a lot better choice. Houston’s defensive front is good, and if their secondary can get healthy, the defense should be able to hold their own. Houston would have to beat the Patriots in a shootout, but Watson and his receiver group have the capability to do that. I think Watson has the potential to get hot and carry the Texans to wins when nobody gives them a chance. If you like a longshot, the Texans are the best option.
Buffalo Bills: +5000
Buffalo is another team on the right path, but we all know they are not winning in Miami in February. So if you are only trying to cash a big-ticket, the Bills are not the team. However, if you have a +5000 Bills ticket and they get in the playoffs, you can hedge against them when they get to the playoffs to make some profit. To do that, they have to make the playoffs. They already have five wins and have games they should win coming up against Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland, and the Jets. They are favored against the Eagles in week eight, so they should get to 10 or 11 wins that puts them in the playoffs. Buffalo would most likely play at Baltimore or KC and probably be about 7 point dogs so that you could play the favorite at about -300. You may have to do this more than once and expose some bankroll in the process, but assuming they make the playoffs, it is a good play.
Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, etc. (All +10,000)
Save your money. In MLB or the NHL, a team can come from last place midway through the season to win the championship, but not in the NFL. I think the Browns have an outside chance to win their division if Baltimore stubs their toe, but that itself is a longshot, then they have to beat Houston, New England, and Kansas City in successive weeks to get to the Super Bowl. Save your money.
NFC Teams. The NFC is a lot more balanced than the AFC, meaning no big favorite, but no +5000 that has a chance.
New Orleans Saints: +650
Could this finally be the year the twice snake bitten Saints make it to the Super Bowl? Sean Payton has his team firing on all cylinders, and despite not having as good of a record as the 49ers, New Orleans is playing the best ball in the conference – even without Drew Brees. The Saint Defense is one of the 2 or 3 best units in the league, and their front seven is dominating every week. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are elite players at their positions, and the O-Line is dominant. They have the whole package to make a deep playoff run. But if they have to go to either San Francisco or Green Bay, it could be a problem. I don’t feel like +650 is good enough odds to play the Saints.
Green Bay Packers: +1000
Maybe this marriage of Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur was a match made in heaven, or perhaps they have a lot of good breaks that have helped them sit with only one loss midway through the season. They are definitely fortunate to have only one loss, but the offense is also playing better each week, and Davante Adams has missed multiple games. This offense will continue to get better, and the defense is good enough to make things tough on their opponents. I think the Pack is a lock to make the playoffs, but I think the Vikings win the division, meaning the Pack has to go on the road throughout the playoffs. Rogers has only made it to one super bowl and has been on better teams, and I don’t think LaFleur can guide the Pack to Miami in year 1. I’d lay off Green Bay.
San Francisco 49ers, +1200
So the team with the best record in the NFC has the 3rd best odds. That’s not a lot of confidence from the bookmakers in Kyle Shanahan and his 49ers. This is a team that is 2nd in the league in yards per play against and 5th in the league in sacks. They can rush the quarterback with their front four, which has helped them to 7 interceptions through 6 games. Jimmy Garoppolo and the receivers have to improve, but adding Emmanuel Sanders is an automatic upgrade, and I expect that the balance of the receivers better as the year unfolds. The offense is balanced, and the running game can keep the wins rolling along as the passing game improves. I like the Niners to hold on and win the NFC West, and key games against the Saints and Packers may determine who gets the bye and home field. I feel like SF gets one of the byes, but I don’t feel like they can win the super bowl this year.
Dallas Cowboys: +1500
With a team of big names like Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, and Amari Cooper, it’s odd the key to success for the Cowboys is the health of left tackle Tyron Smith. Smith has battled some injuries and missed two games this year, both losses for Dallas and games that Prescott got pummeled. If Smith misses time, Dallas won’t make the playoffs, and Smith has missed multiple games over the last few years. I look for the NFC East to only get one playoff team, and Dallas has the edge over the Eagles with their week seven win. The two teams play again in week 16 in the City of Brotherly Love, which basically becomes an extra playoff game. Dallas is not consistent enough, and their coaching is weak, so at +1500, the payout isn’t good enough to buy a Cowboys ticket.
Minnesota Vikings: +1800
Minnesota would be my favorite play in the NFC. The Vikings are 3rd in offensive yards per play, and 7th in yards per play allowed. There is no other team that can match these stats. Minnesota has two weaknesses they have to be overcome – their offensive line and their quarterback laying an egg in a big game. The O-Line is showing signs of improvement. They have only allowed 12 sacks through 7 games, and their rushing game averages the third most yards per game in the league. The quarterback issue is the big one. Kirk Cousins has shown signs of getting over the hump and playing at a high level in big games. His stats are excellent, throwing for 13 interceptions against only three interceptions. The Vikings have one of the best coaches in the NFC, may have the best defense in the conference, and one of the best home-field advantages. I think coaching and defense can carry Cousins to a win in Miami.
Los Angeles Rams: +2000
I want no part of the Rams. Their offensive line is one of the worst in the league, which is making Jared Goff a below-average quarterback. Todd Gurley isn’t healthy and has no room to run when he is on the field. The Defense has a few superstars, but they have no depth. LA has been badly outplayed by the Bucs and 49ers, and have only looked good against the Falcons and the Saints in the game Drew Brees was hurt in. I would rather bet that the Rams don’t make the playoffs than betting that the Rams win the super bowl.
Philadelphia Eagles: +3000
I keep thinking the Eagles are going to turn the corner and start a run that makes us all believe the Eagles are going to the Superbowl. Then they get smoked by the Vikings and Cowboys. When Philly was winning, their defense was dominant, and the strength of the defense was the line. Now they are middle of the pack at sacking opponent quarterbacks and slightly above average against the run. The Eagles have so many injuries that it’s hard to see them getting the ship right. I think the longest odds you can bet on are the Eagles or the Seahawks. The Eagles have the pieces if they can put it all together, so if you like the Eagles to get in over the Cowboys, a play on the Eagles is worth the odds.
Seattle Seahawks: +3000
Russell Wilson is one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He routinely puts the Seahawks on his back and carries them to victories they have no business winning. Coach Pete Carroll can get the most out of his team and has the experience to make a deep playoff run. But there is not a lot of talent on this team. The offensive line has the same issues they’ve had for most of this decade, and the defense that used to be the NFL standard is now bottom 10 in the league. I think Wilson is good enough to get the Hawks in the playoffs, but I’d rather bet on the Eagles as a longshot than the Hawks.
Carolina Panthers: +4000
Not this year. Kyle Allen is a nice story, but the schedule is about to get a lot tougher. Allen or Newton if the Panthers go that way probably can’t get in the playoffs, let alone win the Super Bowl.
Chicago Bears: +6000
Not as long as Mitch Trubisky is the starting quarterback.
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