New England Patriots Season Win Total – Pick with Analysis

by | Jul 6, 2019 | nfl

It’s time to start forming our opinions on how NFL teams might do this season. In this article, we explore the range of possible outcomes with the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. Let’s look at the total for the Pats in the 2019 NFL regular season.

New England Patriots - Regular Season Wins

  • Over 11 Wins (-140)
  • Under 11 Wins (+110)

We see the total is 11, making 12 or more wins “over”, fewer than 11 wins “under”, and exactly 11 wins a push. Over 11 wins at -140 is a favorite, while one forecasting a less-than-vintage Patriots’ campaign could fetch a +110 underdog price. Let’s take a look at what might be the better-value pick this season.

Setting the Table

On one hand, one could illustrate a downturn in their regular season performance, as they did win 11 games last season, their fewest since 2009. Then again, winning the Super Bowl makes it hard to substantiate a feeling that they’re really on the slide. And if you favor the “under” in this bet, it’s worth noting this team has been a double-digit win team every season since 2002. And only twice in that span did they have less than 11 wins in the regular season.

Personnel and Other Changes

Before we get into the particulars, let’s also point out that there have been a lot of seasons, including last year, where personnel losses were cited as cause to project a downturn and look what happened. Still, they lost some beef up-front with the departure of Trent Brown, along with Chris Hogan, Trey Flowers, Cordarrelle Patterson, Eric Rowe, Malcolm Brown, and Adrian Clayborn. The retirement of Rob Gronkowski also hurts, even if he had become less of a factor.

They added Michael Bennett, Bruce Ellington, Maurice Harris, Mike Pennel, Benjamin Watson (suspended) and Demaryius Thomas. On the surface, at the very least, it would appear they lost a little in personnel. But after losing Malcolm Butler, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis, Nate Solder and others before last season, they still fared very well. They could get some help in the draft with first-round WR N’Keal Harry, second-round corner Joejuan Williams, and third-rounders DE Chase Winovich and RB Damien Harris.

How Hard is the Schedule

The Patriots always have a NFL Strength of Schedule that’s tough, a byproduct of their success. It never really seems to matter. Still, it’s one of the most important factors in a season-wins total bet. For what it’s worth, the rest of the AFC East division is on the rise, though still manageable with the Pats playing the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins twice each. Out of the division, they will host the Steelers, Giants, Browns, Cowboys, and the Chiefs. Being home is nice, but that’s a pretty tough roster of teams. On the road, they will play the Redskins, Ravens, Eagles, Texans, and Bengals. It’s not that hard to find five losses in that mix. Their last three games of the season, a road-spot in Cincinnati, followed by home games against the Bills and Dolphins could be big for those taking the “over.”

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Timing the Inevitable

At some point, the New England recipe-for-success will sour. It could be after Brady and Belichick leave, but more often than not, it occurs unexpectedly. Granted, timing the Patriots’ return to Earth has not yielded a ton of positive results at the betting window in recent seasons, but nothing lasts forever. Brady will be 42 this season, and in terms of everything we’ve learned about the ceiling for athletes, the end of the magic can’t be that far off. On the other hand, why now? What changed from less than a year ago that suddenly casts the Pats as a dicey proposition? Sometimes, the light at the end of the tunnel, becoming more-visible has an energizing effect that creates more urgency. Banking on a Super Bowl Hangover could be wishful thinking.

Making a Case for “Over” 11 Wins

A senior citizen coach and a quarterback with a long track record of success don’t return to the fray to go through the motions. If the Pats fall off this season, urgency won’t be the reason. Some personnel losses are troubling, but with this team, the surrounding pieces always seemed secondary. The genius that is deployed in constructing the team and assigning roles, along with the Midas-touch of Brady, is what got the Pats to where they are. Anyone dismissing their chances this season can be shot down with “They won the Super Bowl last season.” And it wasn’t because of departed players like Adrian Clayborn and Eric Rowe. In the better part of two decades, they’ve gone under 11 precisely two times, both by just one game.

Making a Case for “Under” 11 Wins

This bet isn’t about winning the Super Bowl. It’s about regular season wins. And last season, after losing a chunk of their productivity, they went down to 11 wins. They have now lost more pieces, along with some of their heart with Gronk hanging ’em up. The downward trajectory is somewhat palpable. And while it hasn’t hurt them much before, they did lose an unusual amount of assistant coaches, namely longtime defensive assistant Brian Flores. Their schedule is a difficult one where 4 or fewer losses would appear to qualify as an optimistic result. They’re a year older, and it’s not just Brady, it’s a lot of other pieces, as well. And having Michael Bennett and Demaryius Thomas highlighting your offseason acquisitions doesn’t help that. And it’s not like winning 10 or 11 games means they’re dead in the water. It would still be enough to win the division for the 16th time in 17 seasons and put the Pats in a spot to make another of many postseason runs.

Final Verdict: Under 11 wins at +110 odds. Eleven wins seem like an altogether righteous total, and if forced to guess, it’s the number of wins I think they’ll have, favoring the 10/11 range more than the 11/12 window. With the “over” at -140 and the “under” at +110, I think “under” is where the value is.