NFL Strength of Schedule
Understanding the NFL strength of schedule (SOS) is crucial for bettors seeking an edge in their NFL wagering strategies. The 2024 season presents a dynamic landscape shaped by each team’s path through varying levels of competition. Analyzing these rankings not only illuminates upcoming matchups but also offers insights into strategic betting opportunities throughout the season.
Below we have listed the strength of schedule for all 32 teams for the 2024 season. Note that each rating is based on the win percentage of this campaign’s opponent in the previous season.
| Team | 2024 SOS Rank | 2023 SOS Rank | Difference (2024 – 2023) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 1 | 26 | +25 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 21 | +19 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 25 | +22 |
| Houston Texans | T4 | 30 | +26 |
| Green Bay Packers | T4 | 24 | +20 |
| New York Giants | T6 | 5 | +1 |
| Buffalo Bills | T6 | 7 | -1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | T8 | 23 | +15 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | T8 | 10 | -2 |
| New England Patriots | T8 | 3 | -5 |
| Detroit Lions | 11 | 20 | +9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | T12 | 9 | +3 |
| San Francisco 49ers | T12 | 15 | -3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | T12 | 4 | -8 |
| New York Jets | T12 | 6 | -6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | T16 | 17 | -1 |
| Washington Commanders | T16 | 8 | -8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | T16 | 19 | -3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | T16 | 16 | 0 |
| Denver Broncos | 20 | 12 | -8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | T21 | 29 | +8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | T21 | 1 | -20 |
| Tennessee Titans | T21 | 28 | +7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | T24 | 11 | -13 |
| Seattle Seahawks | T24 | 12 | -12 |
| Miami Dolphins | T24 | 2 | -22 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | T27 | 22 | -5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | T27 | 12 | -15 |
| Carolina Panthers | T29 | 27 | -2 |
| Chicago Bears | T29 | 18 | -11 |
| New Orleans Saints | T31 | 31 | 0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | T31 | 32 | +1 |
Key Angles for NFL Bettors:
Early Season Strategy: As NFL teams kick off the season, bettors should closely monitor teams’ performances relative to their strength of schedule. Teams with a fast start against potentially inferior competition could be overrated by oddsmakers, leading to inflated point spreads. For example, if the New England Patriots, benefiting from a softer early schedule, start with a string of wins, bettors might find value in betting against them as the competition toughens later in the season. Conversely, teams like the Cleveland Browns, facing a brutal early schedule with close losses against strong opponents, may be undervalued by the market. Bettors could capitalize on these situations by betting on the Browns to cover spreads in subsequent matchups against teams of similar or lesser strength.
Impact of Early Results: Early-season outcomes significantly influence point spread handicapping and future betting strategies. A team’s performance against its early schedule not only shapes perceptions but also adjusts betting lines accordingly. If a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars starts strong against mid-tier opponents, bettors may view them as overachievers, leading to adjusted spreads in subsequent matchups. Conversely, teams like the New York Giants, facing a tough early schedule with losses in close games, could see their odds undervalued by the market, creating betting opportunities for savvy bettors looking to capitalize on their potential bounce-back against weaker competition.
Divisional Dynamics: Early-season divisional matchups often set the tone for playoff contention. Teams in competitive divisions, such as the NFC West, face tough challenges right from the start. Bettors should analyze these pivotal divisional rivalries, considering historical performances and current season expectations, when placing bets on division winners and playoff contenders. Understanding how teams navigate these early tests provides critical insights into future betting opportunities within these tightly contested divisions.
By applying these strategies to the 2024 NFL strength of schedule rankings, bettors can effectively navigate the complexities of point spread betting and capitalize on early-season outcomes to maximize profitable betting opportunities throughout the NFL season.
