New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Bucs Point Spread Pick

by | Nov 19, 2021 | nfl

New York Giants (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, November 22, 8:15 PM EST

Where: Raymond James Stadium

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NYG +12 / TB -12

Over/Under Total: 50

The G-Men come to Tampa Bay for Week 11 Monday Night Football. BETANYSPORTS (You can lay -105 on games there instead of the more expensive -110 you’re laying!) is making the Buccaneers 12 point favorites and set the over/under at 50. I’m looking for the Giants to keep this one close, so take New York and the 12 points. Here are three reasons.

The Giant Offense Will Score This Week

New York’s offense has been very “hot and cold” this year but should start to trend up. Their best skill players – Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Kadarius Toney, will be on the field together for the first time since week 5. Barkley was slow out of the gate while completing the rehab of his ACL before suffering an ankle injury in Week 5. He was close to playing before the Week 10 bye, so he will be the healthiest he has been this year in Tampa. The offense will run through him this week, while a healthy Golladay gives QB Daniel Jones a target that can win contested catches, and Toney gives Jones an explosive playmaker. Jones has been willing to run more as the season has progressed, which will help this week against a Bucs defense that will put a lot of pressure on him and play man to man behind it. Barkley may struggle in the run game, but he will help as an outlet in the passing game. The Giants are coming off a bye, so they should have a game plan to move the ball and get points.

Tampa’s defense has not hit its stride this year. They performed well against the Bears and Eagles, but the last two weeks against New Orleans and Washington have not been pretty. They are a challenge to run against, but injuries in their secondary and an inconsistent rush have made them vulnerable against the pass. Vita Vea did go down last week and will not play this week which will soften up the Buc run D. Taylor Heinicke completed over 80% of his passes in Week 10 while throwing for 256 yards and 8 yards per attempt, and Jameis Winston and Trevor Siemian were very efficient in the Saints’ Week 9 upset of the defending champ. Jones should be able to match the success of Siemien and Heinicke against Tampa this week. Barkley, Toney, and Golladay will be able to exploit holes in the Tampa back 7 to move the ball. These weapons should also improve the Giants’ performance in the red zone. New York has averaged 22 points in their last three games, and I think they get there again this week.

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The Giant Defense Is Playing Better

Coming into the year, New York’s defense was expected to be the strength of their team. They have also been plagued with injuries, but the defense is rounding into shape. The G-Men have allowed an average of only 13 points per game over their last three and have registered ten takeaways in their last five games. The Giants rank 8th in the league, allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt, and they have only allowed 93 rushing yards per game over their last 3. New York cannot totally shut down the high-powered Tampa Bay offense at home, but they can frustrate the running game and match up with a banged-up Buccaneer receiving corps.
As the Giants are getting healthy, the Bucs are going the other way. Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski have not been on the field since early October, and Chris Godwin played hurt in week 10. Brady continues to play at an elite level, but he has thrown two interceptions in back-to-back games. Leonard Fournette has also stumbled over the past two weeks, managing only 73 yards on 19 carried in those two contests. Tampa’s offense was only on the field for 21 minutes against Washington, and the Giants defense has been better than Washington’s this year. Tampa has played better at home, but the loss of Gronk and AB definitely slows down Brady and the Buc offense, both on third down and in the red zone. Look for the G-Men to have success on defense and be able to keep the Monday Night game close.

Tampa Is in a Rut

The Bucs have lost outright their last two games and are only 3-6 ATS on the season. After losing two games in a row and dealing with injuries to their key players, it’s easy to see them not keeping their foot on the gas if they have a lead in the second half. The Giants, meanwhile, have covered their last three against the spread, so they are starting to exceed expectations. The Bucs should definitely be able to win this game, but covering a double-digit spread is a lot to ask for a team prepping for a Super Bowl run. New York, off of a bye, should be ready and play a solid game against the defending champs. The spot would be great for Tampa if this were a short spread, but the double-digit spread offsets that edge.

Take the 12 Points with New York

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