New York Jets (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
NFL Week 2
Date and Time: Sunday, Sept. 14 4:25p ET
Where: Lambeau Field
TV: CBS
by Evergreen, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYJ +8/GB -8
Over/Under Total: 46
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Week 1 in the NFL was pretty wild with plenty of upsets and that makes for some tense times as good teams now face the potential of an 0-2 start if they cannot turn things around in Week 2. Green Bay welcomes the New York Jets to Lambeau and the Packers will be looking to shake off the sting of an opening loss in Seattle. The Jets survived for a close win against the Raiders last week and now take a big step up in opponent quality as they look to make it two in a row. The game kicks as part of the second slate on CBS.
The online betting sites opened with Green Bay as nine point favorites but the early action has pushed that line to eight and the over/under total is most commonly at 46. From 1989-2013, eight point favorites won straight up in 77% of contests but only managed an 83-90-3 record against the spread. Home teams with that eight point spread went 67-68-3 over that span.
Green Bay likely drew the most difficult opponent to open a season but they certainly didnt look good in their 36-16 loss in Seattle. The run game never got on track and injuries to the offensive line put Aaron Rodgers under pressure too often to get in a rhythm. Green Bay took advantage of a muffed punt and a long pass interference penalty on two scoring drives, so the offensive output could have been ever worse. The Jets dont have the same defense that the Seahawks do and the game is in Lambeau so look for a much better effort overall.
New York did the job of securing a win against the Raiders by a 19-14 score but I doubt anyone was overly impressed with that. Geno Smith did look good in completing 23 of 28 passes and seems to have added some of the consistency that he lacked last year. The Jets rushed for 212 yards as a team and that should be the focus this week as they face a Green Bay defense that gave up 207 to Seattle. There are enough targets for Smith to utilize and he found four different receivers with at least four passes last week, with Eric Decker leading with five catches for 74 yards. New York should just pop in the tape from Thursday Night and they will see Seattle spreading the ball around much the same way.
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The biggest new item for the Packers is the status of running back Eddie Lacy. Lacy sustained a concussion during the Seahawk game, his second in less than a year. He will go through all of the NFL protocols and there is some thought that he will be able to suit up given the ten day period between games. Tackle Bryan Bulaga will miss 4-6 weeks with a torn MCL however and that could prove the more costly injury as replacement Derek Sherrod looked overmatched while he was in the game. Sherrods presence will be a focal point for the Jets defense to attack so look for a moving pocket as the Packers coaches dont want to hang Rodgers out to dry. The Jets are relatively healthy but might be without secondary players Dee Milliner and Josh Bush. Both men were absent in Week 1 and secondary depth is a nice thing to have when facing Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.
This seems like a bit of a bad time for this matchup for Green Bay as they were just exposed on run defense and had all kinds of trouble moving the ball on offense. The Jets should be less of a challenge and there is the benefit of the long week but the Pack doesnt have the look of an eight point favorite against anyone. First and foremost, they need to shore up the O-line but they also need to get Jarrett Boykin and the tight ends involved so coverages cant simply roll to Nelson and Cobb. It has been just one week but there is definitely some work to do there.
It would be hard to say that the Jets are a good money line pick as I doubt they can stroll into Lambeau and get a win with the same kind of game they had against Oakland but they surely can give Green Bay some fits by running the ball. Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory looked like a good enough tandem to at least keep the Packer offense on the sidelines and this has all the makings of a grind-em-out game. The conservative throws will be there for Geno and his legs will be of good use as Green Bay has never really been able to bottle up running QBs. New York gave up just 25 rushing yards and 158 yards overall so they should at least be confident that they can limit the usually dynamic Packers enough to give the offense a chance to stay in the game. Both teams will be facing far different teams than they did in the openers but it looks like Green Bay has more questions than answers right now, making the eight points just too much to give. Rodgers has a better game overall and James Starks is capable of handling the rushing load if necessary so Green Bay gets the win but it is the Jets that steal the ATS victory. Green Bay 28 NYJ 23
Evergreen’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: New York Jets plus the points!
