NFL 2023 Defensive Player of the Year Bets
If you are looking for a futures bet with some grandiose potential returns where you have a vested interest in a player for the whole season, a wager on who will win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award might be up your alley. Looking at previous awards, and there will be the occasional exception, we see a lot of players from good teams who made an impact that can be captured in some kind of statistical way. This is an award that is voted on by the Associated Press. It’s not a simple measure of how effective a defensive player is.
Therefore, we need to calibrate what makes up a player who can realistically win this award. The scope is more limited than it is with offensive players. First of all, there are only two real glamor stats for defensive players—sacks and interceptions. To a far lesser degree, you have number of tackles. Still, there are a lot of ways for a player to be a standout on defense without being able to really capture that statistically. And not that voters are blinded totally by stats, but it does figure into the equation.
So we want to look away from the run-stopping defensive tackle or the super-effective corner on a bad team. Or even the good linebacker on a good team who is just super-competent and makes no splash plays. There are going to be players who are near the top of the list of guys you’d pick if you were putting together a defense who simply wouldn’t rank high for winning this award. Recent history is also revealing, as since 2011, only one defensive back has won, with the other 11 winners made up of 8 linemen and three linebackers. Let’s break down who we like this season! (All Odds by Bovada)
Best Bets for 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year
Micah Parsons (+600): More than a few aspects of this storyline shake out well to forecast Parsons figuring well in this mix. If you end up looking back at what turned out to be an impactful season for the Dallas Cowboys defense, and Parsons is sitting there with 15 sacks and a TD or two while seemingly being all over the field, he’s going to be a difficult guy to ignore. The star linebacker was Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2021 and second in the voting for this award last season, losing out to Nick Bosa. So the voters are well aware of who he is and could easily turn to him as the choice this season.
TJ Watt (+800): The Steelers star linebacker had finished in the top three in this voting and won the DPOY in 2021 before missing seven games last season. Increased age and injury could make him seem like a low-value pick in 2023. In addition, the Steelers might be out of the limelight, giving Watt less of a high profile to showcase his wares. But the sack-master, who had 22.5 of them when he won this, can put up numbers like few other players on this list. He’ll also get you some picks and another compelling stat line, along with the Pittsburgh defense surpassing expectations this season could put a familiar candidate for this award back in the running.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner (+1400): This pick has both its pros and cons. Going against Gardner is that the second-year Jets corner had only two picks in his rookie season, though it was enough to win him Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. And it’s the kind of thing where there could be some regression, not to mention the recent aforementioned tendency of voters to recently look away from DBs. But to become the league’s premier lockdown corner in your first season speaks volumes, and if the Jets take flight in 2023 and their defense is a large part of the equation, Gardner could end up looming large.
Best Longshot Picks to Win the 2023 DPOY Award
Aidan Hutchinson (+3000): A more-speculative pick, as is the nature with longer shots, the second-year defensive end fits the bill in a few ways, as a pass-rushing DE who starred at Michigan and is now playing for what seems to be an upwardly-mobile Detroit squad. Being a rising player on a rising team is what you want out of longer-odds picks, and even if Hutchinson’s 9.5 sack total from last season won’t put him in the hunt for this award, he’s a guy whose form could explode on a defense that might be coming around to speed. A big year for both Detroit and Hutchinson could have him a serious candidate, at which point you’d be quite elated about your 30/1 ticket.
Quinnen Williams (+3300): We really hate to go back to the same team, as we already have Gardner for the Jets and are now entertaining a tickle on the 33-to-1 Williams. But the Jets’ interior lineman really seemed to be turned loose last season, registering a dozen sacks on a Jets’ defense that has the ability to really make a splash. If they thrive and Williams stands out as a major reason, he could be an interesting choice or a little pivot off Gardner at far better odds. At just 25, the former overall number-three pick still has the ability to grow as an even larger force.
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