NFL Week 17 Predictions: Chargers vs. Patriots Picks & Best Bets

Los Angeles Chargers (9-6 SU, 10-5 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (3-12 SU, 6-8-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 17
Date/Time: Saturday, December 28, 2024 at 1PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: NFL Net

The Los Angeles Chargers take on the New England Patriots on Saturday in Foxborough in week 17 AFC action. The Chargers, in a hunt for a playoff spot, look to come off the long week strong, following a 34-27 home-win over the Broncos last Thursday, 34-27. They now go on a long road trip to face a 3-12 Patriots team that fell short on Sunday in a 24-21 loss to Buffalo, their fifth straight loss. Perhaps of little importance now is that when these teams met in December of last year, the Chargers won in a forgettable 6-0 game. There should be a lot more offense this week. Let’s break it down.

Chargers Back on Track?

For the purposes of competing against the Pats, the Chargers have maybe never been off-track. But leading up to their nice divisional win over the Broncos were two straight losses, the week before being a concerning 40-17 loss to Tampa. Seeing some good offensive production from QB Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense was a good sign, particularly against a good Denver defense. We saw them actually run the ball fairly well, a Harbaugh staple and something he could unleash in what looks to be a good spot this week. Herbert has most of his weapons now and while the aerial-attack lacks any real stars, the sum-total of all their talent isn’t so bad if they can get into a groove.

What Can We Expect of the Patriots?

Being a team like the Patriots with all their past glory and being at 3-12 tells people this is a team that has bottomed out. And from a results standpoint, that’s perhaps true. It’s unlikely their head coach survives this, and the once-stable Patriots are going through a lot of change in this era. Still, with rookie QB Drake Maye looking for meaningful work and with an offense still out there trying, maybe they’re not utterly hopeless in the face of a Chargers’ defense that has allowed 67 combined points in their last two games. Granted, the Bolts still have a pass-rush that can take over in the right spot, with other standouts on that “D” who can make big, game-changing plays. But Maye is coming along nicely, and the Patriots have covered the spread two of the last three weeks.

The Patriots have similar issues as the Chargers do on offense, just with far less success. They struggle to get a running-game going, but when they do, capable Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, and Maye can do some damage. Like the Bolts, the receiving corps lacks any current star-power, but on a given day, any number of guys can produce a big game, on Sunday it being Kayshon Boutte with 95 yards and a TD. While we’ve seen their defense become exploitable on a more consistent basis, and there are obviously issues-galore with a team with 12 losses with two more games to go, they’re still probably the last team you want to go out of your way betting into at home when looking at that whole gaggle of teams sitting with 2-4 wins. At least in that sense, they might not be quite as bad as their record suggests.

Issues for the Patriots on Saturday

With the long week, I’d expect the Chargers to be on-point after zooming back against the Broncos for the big win. The win almost locked in their playoff standing, which is currently at over 90% with a win this week clinching a wild-card playoff spot. That big second half last Thursday was big for this team, and I see them rolling that momentum into Foxborough on Saturday. That leaves Drake Maye with what might be a really tough matchup if the defense is out there really going for it, as one would figure they might. And if the Chargers can get that run-game held under control, how well do you fancy the chances of these New England role-receivers against the Chargers’ secondary? Combine that with the fact that there isn’t anything terribly impressive happening on defense for the Patriots, and I’m not sure how positive one can be with all this.

Not that the Chargers are above reproach on either side of the ball. And it’s not like they have an offense that is likely to put this out of reach, at least early. But when the Chargers are rolling along, they do a lot of things well. We might see the Patriots beat Chicago, hang in there against Indy, and have their moments against a wayward Buffalo defense. But against a more all-around competent team like the Chargers that do a lot of the little things and is coached well, I’m not sure things come off as swimmingly. There just won’t be as much of an “in” as there have been in some of the Patriots’ more impressive recent performances.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

It’s a long road trip against a team that is still out there trying and looking to make some things happen where the Chargers have to cover a number. A Chargers team looking to lock up a playoff spot might just extend themselves far enough to get the “W” without necessarily flooring the gas pedal. Be that as it may, I see the Patriots languishing a bit in this one on offense, with the Chargers making enough big plays on both sides of the ball to get out of Foxborough with the win and cover this week. I’ll take the Chargers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers minus 4 points.