Panthers vs. Buccaneers Predictions & Picks: NFL Week 17

Carolina Panthers (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 17
Date/Time: Sunday, December 29th, 2024, 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa, FL.
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: CAR +7.5/TB -7.5
Moneyline: CAR +300/TB -400
Total: 48.5

Last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a tough loss to the Dallas Cowboys in front of a Sunday Night Football audience. The Buccaneers had a chance to win the game in the final minutes but a costly fumble ended their changes. More importantly, the loss moved the Buccaneers to 8-7 SU and in 2nd place in the NFC South behind the Atlanta Falcons who have the same record. As a result, the Buccaneers will likely need to win their final two games of the season and perhaps get some help if they are going to win the division and keep their playoff hopes alive.

The good news for Tampa Bay fans is that the remaining schedule appears relatively manageable with home games against the Panthers and Saints over the next two weeks. The Panthers and the Saints have just nine combined wins on the season and are considered among the worst teams in the NFC. However, Carolina has shown life in recent weeks with some really competitive contests. In fact, Carolina pulled out a surprising 36-30 overtime victory over the Cardinals last week, and they will look to play the spoiler role when they travel to Tampa for Sunday’s week 16 showdown against the Buccaneers.

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

The Buccaneers scored a 26-23 victory over the Panthers earlier this season in a week 12 match-up in Charlotte. In that game, Panthers QB Bryce Young had one of his better performances of the season throwing for nearly 300 yards and Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield had a relatively poor performance which was plagued by turnover issues. Those turnover issues have been the biggest liability for Tampa Bay throughout the season and must be considered as a possible liability until the Buccaneers prove otherwise.

Despite the turnover concerns, I do agree with the betting line that has the Buccaneers favored by more than a touchdown. The reason I agree with that betting line despite the Panthers’ improvement in recent weeks is based around the match-up. The Panthers’ offensive improvement has centered around the running game with RB Chubba Hubbard. The success of the running attack has made things easier for young QB Bryce Young to find opportunities down the field. However, Tampa Bay’s defense has been very good against the run, yielding just 109 yards per game on the ground. In the week 12 match-up against the Panthers, Hubbard was held to just 43 rushing yards and if that happens again; I expect the Buccaneers’ pass-rush to rattle Young in more obvious passing situations.

On the other side of the field, the Panthers continue to have the worst rushing defense in the NFL that is allowing 173 yards per game on the ground. The Buccaneers have relied on tailbacks Rachaad White and Bucky Irving more consistently during the 2nd half of the season. I think the Buccaneers can do that again this week and perhaps also limit the turnover issues without having to throw the ball around so much. Even if that happens, Mayfield has still shown the ability to move the football quickly and effectively down the field. Needless to say, there are just not many scenarios where Tampa Bay does not have a serious advantage on the offensive side of the football.

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

• The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Panthers are 1-4 SU in the last five games.
• The Panthers have hit the “over” in four of the last five games.
• The Panthers are 4-8 ATS in the last 12 games against Tampa Bay.
• Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.
• Tampa Bay has hit the “over” in 9 of the last 12 games.
• Tampa Bay has hit the “under” in 10 of the last 15 games at home.
• Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU in the last nine games against Carolina.

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Prediction

In many late season match-ups, bettors have to worry about the level of “effort” teams are showing as they wrap up the season. I don’t think “effort” will be a concern for either team in this game, as the Bucs are still playing for the playoffs, and the Panthers have shown a lot of fight in recent weeks. However, I think Tampa Bay’s defense and running attack should limit the Panthers’ scoring opportunities while potentially controlling the pace of the game. As a result, I am going to take an unpopular play on the under here because I believe this total has been inflated due to recent box scores from both teams.

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 48.5!