NY Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs MNF Prediction ATS

by | Oct 29, 2021 | nfl

N.Y. Giants (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) v. Kansas City Chiefs (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS)
NFL Week 8
When: Monday, November 1 - 8:15 pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium - Kansas City, MO
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: NYG +9.5/KC -9.5 (BetNow)
Over/Under Total: 52.5

Time waits for no one, and we are somehow nearly halfway through the 2021 NFL season. The New York Giants and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the November schedule when they face each other on Monday Night Football. The Giants are predictably off to a 2-5 start, but the Chiefs have to be one of the biggest disappointments so far with their 3-4 start. There is still time to turn things around for KC, and they seem capable of beating the lesser opponents on their schedule. New York looks to be the last cupcake Kansas City will see for a while, with Green Bay, Las Vegas, and Dallas ahead. These teams last met in 2017 and played an odd game that ended in a 12-9 OT win for New York and included Travis Kelce throwing an interception. Considering the current state of both offenses, I wouldn’t rule out another ugly contest.

Trend Watch

New York is riding a long-term trend that has seen them perform well away from home. The Giants are 20-6 against the spread in their last 27 on the road and 22-7 ATS in the last 29 when they are the road dog. On the other side of the coin, Kansas City has a 1-8 ATS record in their previous nine at home and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 overall. I will spare you some very tedious stats and say you would be a very happy bettor if you blindly stuck with the UNDER in any Giants game over the last season-plus, and the UNDER has hit in each of the previous four Chiefs games on MNF. Roughly 60% of the public bets are on KC to cover, with the OVER seeing about 55% of the public money.

New Life Needed in New York

The Giants offense has been anything but prolific in 2021. They sit 26th in rushing and 25th in scoring at 19.9 points per game. Some of that can be attributed to a series of injuries to key personnel. Again, that is the case with Kenny Golladay, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, and Kadarius Toney, all listed as questionable for Monday. Daniel Jones has taken some big hits as well but has managed to stay in the lineup and leads the team in rushing with 229 yards. Jones is slowly improving his accuracy, but his completion percentage is still just 27th, and he has five touchdown passes through seven games. Devontae Booker is averaging 3.2 yards per carry but could see a better performance given KC’s 27th ranked rush defense. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are the only healthy WR options at the moment, but there is a little hope with Shephard leading the team in receptions and Slayton second at 15.8 yards per reception. They will work against a Chiefs passing defense that is 26th in yards allowed. The NYG has seen its share of struggles as well in allowing 25.7 points per game and over 125 yards on the ground. They have seen some success in the pass rush and rank 9th in takeaways, but they tend to give up big point totals (38 to LAR, 44 to DAL) when they aren’t seeing those turnovers.

One-Sided Chiefs

There has been plenty of blame to go around during the slow start in KC, but the offense is at least statistically pulling its weight with the 3rd most yards overall and 4th best passing game. Giveaways have been the killer on that side, with KC dead-last with 17 turnovers. Mahomes is 5th in the league in passing with an impressive 18 touchdowns but also has nine interceptions and has been taking a lot more hits than usual. Darrel Williams will start again in place of the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Williams leads the team with four rushing touchdowns but has only averaged 3.5 yards per carry, and that relative lack of production has put KC in a lot of obvious passing situations. Tyreek Hill leads the team with 52 receptions for 641 yards, and Travis Kelce leads all tight ends in catches and yards. That duo has caught half of Mahomes’ touchdown passes and remains one of the best WR1-TE combos in the league. The KC defense has not had similar success, however. The Chiefs are last with just eight sacks and 30th in third-down defense. KC is 28th in yards per rush allowed, and opposing QBs have put up a 104 rating. The defense isn’t giving the offense any short fields with just four interceptions and seven total takeaways. The lack of defense is standing in the way of championship aspirations but at issue this week is the D giving up 24+ and making the offense put up a big number just to cover.

KC will cover…barely.

With both defenses underperforming, perhaps the best bet is the over in this one, but I think the Chiefs have a relatively good angle on covering one of the biggest spreads of the week. The multitude of injuries for New York is going to put a lot of pressure on their offense, and Jones is not going to be able to get it done with his legs alone. KC has the edge in healthy playmakers, and the G-Men will not have an answer for Hill and Kelce. Last week was arguably the worst performance by a Mahomes-led team, and I think KC bounces back in a big way. I think the Chiefs get out fast, which will put NY in a pass-happy mode that will be a bit easier to defend. I think the Giants get a fourth-quarter score that makes this a nervous game to watch for KC bettors, but the Chiefs send the Arrowhead faithful home happy with a 31-21 win. Ted Walker’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Kansas City

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