Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills
Saturday, August 15th
Here’s an excerpt from an article I did last year as we headed into week one of the preseason:
“I heard teams that played in the Hall of Fame game have an edge over teams that are playing their first game in week one of the preseason.
No doubt you’ve heard it, too.
So what’s the story? Is it true or not?”
To answer the question, “Is it true or not?” I dug into the numbers. With the results of last year’s game, I’ve now accumulated 7 years’ worth of data to look at for Week One preseason records for a team that played the previous week in the Hall of Fame game:
SU 8-6
ATS 8-6
Favs 4-3
Dogs 4-3
Ov/Un 8-6
Both participants in the 2025 Hall of Fame game, LA and Detroit, won their next game SU and ATS, giving a very slight edge to teams that already have a game under their belt going into week one of the preseason.
Nothing to exploit there, on sides or totals,
BUT . . .
Let’s take a look at Team Totals.
In a 7-year sample of Hall of Fame participants we have 14 follow-up games to look at.
Of those 14 teams, eight have scored 20 or more points in their next game.
That’s 57%, just under the 58% I use as a cutoff to make my bets.
Most team totals in preseason games are in the 18-19 point range, giving us an edge on team totals going Over for teams playing in their second game of the preseason.
The books have not yet released their team totals for this weekend’s games but using the basic formula for calculating team totals (divide the game total by two and add half of the spread for the Fav, subtract half of the spread for the Dog) Carolina will be approximately 20 points and Arizona will be at approximately 19.
Last week, Carolina scored 33, Arizona put up 30.
Both totals are well above the numbers for this week’s games but I trust Arizona to hit 19 more than Carolina. The only reason Carolina scored 33 last week is because Arizona’s defense was porous and their coaches blew it on defensive play calling.
On the last play of the game everyone knew that Carolina quarterback Haynes King was going to run the ball, just like he did so successfully two plays earlier to get them in scoring position.
Well, everyone except the Arizona coaches.
They failed to put a spy on him and sure enough, King ran the ball for the winning touchdown.
In seven preseason games under head coach Dave Canales, Carolina has scored an average of just 14.5 per game. They have scored under this week’s total of 20 points in five of their seven preseason games.
I don’t trust Canales to score more than 20 this week.
Joe Brady is in his first year as Buffalo’s head coach so there’s no data to look at there, no idea how he will treat the preseason – will he want to use the games to establish winning or strictly as talent evaluation/no concern for the score?
In his two previous seasons, head coach Canalis has gone 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in the preseason.
He’s lost two of three SU on the Rd and he’s 0-3 ATS as a preseason Fav like this week.
I think last week’s game was a fluke, and the final score was the result of poor play by Arizona more than quality minutes from Carolina’s backups.
Fired HC Sean McDermott never cared about winning in the preseason, hopefully new head coach Joe Brady, an offensive coordinator by trade, will put a premium on putting points on the board in the preseason, and get his head coaching career off to a good start with a W.
I’m going to wait to buy this one.
The Bill’s opened as -2′ Favs but they’re now the Dog at +1′ as money’s coming in on Arizona (based on last week’s win by the Panthers and the public’s belief that Hall of Fame teams have an edge in week one.)
I checked last year’s Week 1 preseason schedule to see if there were any Flip Flop Favs (where the opening Fav became the Dog.)
I found one game that qualified.
The Bears opened as -2′ Favs over the Dolphins and closed as the Dog, +1′.
Final score, 24-24.
The incoming money was wrong as the Dog got the cover.
My play:
Buf (wait to buy)
Record: 0-1
Be sure to check the PredictEm Forum as I may add a Team Total play to this week’s games.
