Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS)
NFL Week 9
Date/Time: Monday, November 5th, 2012, 8:30 p.m. EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, La.
TV: ESPN
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Phi +3.5/NO -3.5
Over/Under Total: 52.5
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The Philadelphia Eagles trip to the Superdome to play the New Orleans Saints was supposed to be a supreme test between two of the NFC’s finest, a game worthy of primetime Monday Night Football status, but with the way these two teams are going right now the Eagles-Saints game on ESPN might turn into a misery-fest instead.
Philly is like a soap opera these days. The Eagles did the unthinkable during Andy Reid’s tenure and lost coming out of their bye week last Sunday, dropping a 30-17 decision at home to unbeaten Atlanta. The Falcons loss was the third loss in a row for the Eagles, and not only did it show how large a gap still exists between the Falcons and Eagles right now, but it got so ugly that now the franchise QB Michael Vick might get replaced by a third-round rookie against the Saints in the Superdome this week.
Of course the Saints are still slogging their way through the lost 2012 season, one hampered by the “Bounty Scandal” that has dropped them to 2-5 following last week’s loss at Denver on Sunday night, 34-14. New Orleans needs to re-start their bounty program, or do something, because their defense is terrible and when you give up 30 points a game each week Drew Brees and the offense aren’t getting a fair chance.
With the Monday Night game over a week away the oddsmakers originally opened the game with the Saints as 3.5-point favorites at home. After 24 hours there hasn’t been too much line movement yet, although a few of the offshore sportsbooks are down to minus -3 with extra juice tacked on (-125) if you want to get back to the key number.
You use a club card, you clip coupons, you compare prices etc in your every day life, so why would you not do this with your betting? Stop betting at -110 odds. You’re wasting money. Start betting at only -105 today at 5Dimes. You’ll be so glad that you made the switch.
The over/under total opened at 52.5 and has also seen little to no line movement early on, although a few of the offshore sportsbooks are down the hook to 52.
On the surface you’d expect an offensive shootout on Monday featuring two of the NFL’s top gunslingers in Brees and Vick, but these days Vick is being scapegoated in Philly for their Eagles major offensive struggles. Just about everyone who has watched Philly this season, with the exception of coach Andy Reid apparently, can see that the offensive line issues are killing them, but yet Vick is getting bounced around on every pass play when Reid gets fancy with his scheme.
The Eagles offense has had 17 fumbles this year (lost 9), many by a blindsided or scrambling Vick, which has cost the Eagles and put them at minus -9 in turnover margin this season.
Brees and the Saints offense is still tops in the league in passing (316 ypg) and among the top-10 in scoring at 27.1 points per game, but when you have to score over 30 to win every week you’re not going to win many games in the NFL, period.
The Saints defense has performed a little better in recent weeks, but it’s still lipstick on a pig and there’s no doubt Vick is overdue for a breakout game against the league weakest unit allowing 475 yards a game.
The last time these two met was in 2009, a 48-22 win by the Saint in Philadelphia when Brees (311 yards, 3 TD) out dueled Kevin Kolb (391 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT). New Orleans has now won three of the last four meetings with the Eagles since 2006, but the Eagles actually own a 7-3 SU and ATS record in the least 10 head-to-head matchups with the Saints (back to 1992) including a 5-1 ATS mark in their last five visits to the Superdome.
Philly is 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday Night Football appearances, but so is New Orleans. The Saints are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games, and 19-8 ATS following a straight up loss, so the betting trends seem to point in favor of the home team.
The over is 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings, 4-0-1 in the Eagles on Monday Night and 7-2 in the Saints last nine on Monday Night, so the over might be the best trend play of the game.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’ve been on the Eagles a lot this season, and with a 1-4-1 ATS record, I’m not sure I can take much more of their drama. I can’t back the Saints until they decide to play defense, so if I play anything for this game it might be the over. There really is no wagering value in this game.
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