Philadelphia Eagles(2-3SU,2-3ATS) vs.Tampa Bay Buccaneers(0-4SU,1-3ATS)
NFL Week6
Date and Time:/October 13, 1:00 PM E
Where:Raymond James Stadium
TV:FOX
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:PHIL-1.5/TB +1.5
Over/Under Total:46
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers willattemptto win their first game of the season, when they take on theup and downPhiladelphia Eagles with two weeks to prepare. Tampa Bay is coming off their BYE week and home underdogs in this role have been a huge money maker. More on that later. It looks ugly right now for theBucsbut if you dig a little deeper there are signs of hope. They have three losses by a combined 6 points. The other loss was a 20-pointset-back at NewEngland. TheBucshave beenout-gainedin all four games this season and have gone 0-8 ITS (in the stats) since the start of the Preseason. The Eaglesfinallywon a game after losing three straight. But, it was against thewinlessNY Giants. The Eaglesout-gainedthe Giants by 56 yards and are 3-2 ITS this season. Philly is 6-3 ITS since the start of Preseason.
TheBucshave the better defense by almost 100 yards. The Eagles have the better offense by 170 yards. TheBucshave the worst passing offense in the league while the Eagles have the secondworst passing defense. Normally when teams are matched up like this, the team with better defense wins out. You know how big I am on Special Teams play and theBucshave the advantage. TheEagles are ranked 29thoverall and last inopponentstarting fieldposition. TheBucsare ranked 23rd overall but have done a much better job not allowing theiropponentsto have great starting fieldpositionespecially after a punt. Both teams have offensive lines that are ranked in the bottom half of the league. Maybe the BYE week will help the home team. They are ranked No. 27 while the Eagles are ranked No. 19 according to Football Outsiders.
This will explain why the line is not higher. NFL teams that are 0-3 or worse are 21-17SUand 27-10-1 ATS when playing with a a Week of rest since 1980. Also, theBucsare 6-1SUand 6-1 ATS when playing at home with a week of rest. TheEagles enter this game in a Giants-Cowboyssandwich (Played Giants last Week & face Dallas next week) the home team looks more and more appealing. The Giants are 1-5SUand 1-5 ATS when favored after playing the G-men.
MichaelVickis expected to miss this game due to the hamstring injury. Backup NickFolesreplace Vick last Sunday and threw two fourth-quartertouchdownsin the 36-21 win. For the game,Folesended 16-for-25 passing for 197 yards and two scores. HisQBRwas 114.9. NFLBYE week teams playing at home as dogs,who are facing a QB who did not start the season as a No. 1, are a bankrolling9-0SUand 7-2 ATS.
TheBucswill rely on a strong ground game to set the tone. With the Eagles being a little light up front, especially on the edges look for running back Doug Martin to have his best game of the season. This will set-up some nice play-action passes for MikeGlennon.Glennonis a big tough kid who can make all the throws. In his NFL debut in Week 4,Glennoncompleted just 24 of 43 passes for 193 yards, one TD and twoints. Both giveaways coming in the final quarter. TheBucsscored just 10 points. I think with two weeks to prepareGlennonwill have a much betterperformanceand lead the team to its first win.
LastDecember, the Eagles defeated theBucs23-21 as 8-point road favorites. It was just the 10thtime the two teams played since 1999. The Eagles are 6-4SUand 6-4 ATS against Tampa Bay during that span.
Jeff’sPick to Cover the Point Spread: Tampa BayBucs+1.5
Tampa Bay enters this game playing with rest and revenge. A very powerful combo. TheBucsare 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 6 and are extremely motivated to get their first win of the season. All systems, stats,fundamentals, and mosttrends says TB will win. This play is one of my Las Vegas Wise Guys selections where I am 6-2-2 ATS.Take the home dog in this one!
