Ravens vs. Browns Free ATS Pick 10/1/23
Baltimore Ravens (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (2-1, 2-1), 10/1/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 1
Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium
NFL Betting Odds
Money line: Balt +120 / Cle -140 (This should be a good game to tease! Wagerweb has football teasers up to 20 points!)
October in Cleveland begins with an AFC North grudge match as the Browns host the Ravens Sunday afternoon at Browns Stadium.
Both teams are off to 2-1 starts playing in what’s probably the toughest division in the League.
Who do we like for our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 4 NFL betting market opened Cleveland at -2.5 over Baltimore, with an over/under of right around 42. Early betting action then edged that total down to 41.
Ravens Betting Preview
Baltimore just took its first loss of this season, a somewhat puzzling 22-19 overtime decision at home to Indianapolis last Sunday. The Ravens, favored by 9.5 points, drove their first possession of the game 80 yards to a touchdown but only led 14-13 into the locker room. Baltimore later led 19-16 but allowed the Colts to tie the game with just under a minute to go, then lost it in OT.
Kicker Matt Gay played hero for Indy, kicking five field goals, four from 50-plus!
The Ravens out-gained Indianapolis 364-327 but lost the turnover battle 2-0, resulting in a -6 points differential. Baltimore also came up empty offensively in a couple of key spots that could have won the game.
The Ravens opened this season with a lackluster 25-9 win over Houston, then won at Cincinnati 27-24.
Even at 2-1 Baltimore is not playing its best ball so far.
Browns Betting Preview
Cleveland is also 2-1 after disposing of Tennessee last Sunday 27-3. The Browns, playing without their great RB Nick Chubb, took the lead for good on a Watson-Ford touchdown hook-up early in the second quarter and led 13-3 at the half. Cleveland then stuffed Tennessee from there while tacking on a couple scores to secure the win and the cover at -3.5.
The Browns out-gained the Titans 341-94, held Tennessee to just six first downs and 26 yards on the ground, dominated time of possession 38:22 and recorded five sacks.
Cleveland opened this season with a 24-3 win over the Bengals, then lost at Pittsburgh 26-22. The Browns actually thoroughly out-played the Steelers that night but gave up two turnover returns for touchdowns.
So Cleveland really should be 3-0 on the season.
On the injury front Baltimore was down two starters along the offensive line last week and might be so again Sunday.
Ravens-Browns Recent History
Baltimore is 5-2 both SU and ATS over its last seven meetings with Cleveland. But Sunday will be the first match-up of these teams with Watson vs. Jackson at quarterback.
NFL Betting Trends
Through Week 3 NFL home teams are just 22-26 SU, 19-26 ATS.
Through Week 3 NFL favorites are 28-20 SU but 20-25 ATS.
The unders are 2-1 in Ravens games this season, which are averaging 41 total points (without overtime).
The unders are 2-1 in Browns games, which are averaging 35 points.
The unders are 5-2 over the last seven meetings between these teams.
Through NFL Week 3 the unders are 25-23.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Cleveland should be 3-0, if not for those two disastrous plays against Pittsburgh. And while we love Chubb, the Browns might be good enough to absorb his absence. Baltimore, meanwhile, didn’t impress us against Houston or Indianapolis and while they beat Cincinnati, the Bengals aren’t hitting on all cylinders themselves. We like Cleveland for Sunday.