Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 18, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Huntington Bank Field
The Baltimore Ravens are 4.5-point road favorites over the Cleveland Browns, with a total of 41.5. My play is Ravens -4.5.
“We are going to blitz you every third down.” That’s what Todd Monken says he told Lamar Jackson after Jackson texted to congratulate him on landing the Browns job this offseason, according to the Baltimore Sun. It was a great line. The problem for Monken is that Sunday isn’t about whether his defense can rattle his old quarterback. It’s about whether his offense can do anything at all against his old team, and right now the answer looks like no.
Monken spent three years in Baltimore calling plays for Jackson, the last two with Derrick Henry in the backfield, and he’s spent five weeks in Cleveland watching his own run game sputter. Quinshon Judkins is averaging 3.0 yards per carry, and now he’s nursing an ankle tweak on top of it. Deshaun Watson got sacked eight times by the Jets last week, and Cleveland is now the worst team in football at protecting the passer, getting dropped on 11.3% of dropbacks according to TeamRankings. Monken didn’t sugarcoat it: “You’re going to put yourself in that position when you can’t run the football.” Stuck behind the sticks, the Browns convert third downs at the third-worst rate in the league. You can’t win a division game living on third-and-9.
Henry versus this run defense is a mugging
Here’s the part that doesn’t care who plays quarterback for Baltimore. Cleveland’s run defense has been a sieve all year. ESPN’s Daniel Oyefusi notes opponents are succeeding on 52.8% of their runs against the Browns, the second-worst rate in the league, and ball carriers are averaging 2.53 yards after contact, near the bottom of the league. Translation: the Browns aren’t winning at the point of attack, and they aren’t finishing tackles either. Henry, who already has seven rushing touchdowns, eats that kind of defense for lunch. Interior tackles Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr. both missed last week and are questionable again.
The Ravens’ offense ranks top five in both EPA per play and success rate in nflfastR data, which means they gain more on a typical snap than almost anyone and stay ahead of schedule while doing it. That holds up whether Jackson is back from his sprained ankle or Tyler Huntley gets the call again. Ian Rapoport reported “several people” around the situation believe Jackson will miss only one game, though Jesse Minter wouldn’t say whether he’d practice Wednesday. And if it’s Huntley? He just went 11-for-11 on the final two drives to beat Atlanta in overtime. “This win right here, I feel like is us,” Kyle Hamilton told his teammates afterward. Baltimore is 4-1, 3-0 away from home, and finally winning the close ones.
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What keeps me up Saturday night
Cleveland’s defense can rush the passer. The Browns average 3.2 sacks per game, and Maliek Collins has 2.5 of them over the last two weeks. Their pass defense is solid, too. Baltimore has also been leaky on third down, allowing 41.5% conversions, so Watson’s scrambles could keep a few drives alive. The Browns haven’t lost at home and have won three one-score games, and division games love to get weird. If Jackson is ruled out and the number drops, take the better price. I’m laying it up to -5.5, but not a hook past that.
Projected score: Ravens 24, Browns 16. Henry gets his 100 and a score, and Cleveland’s offense finds out the hard way that a stalled run game and a leaky pocket don’t add up to points.
The Pick: Ravens -4.5
Monken knows exactly what’s coming from the Ravens and still doesn’t have the bodies to stop it, so back Baltimore and bring some extra bankroll into the weekend. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Ravens -4.5 and the rest of your Week 6 NFL picks.
