Ravens vs. Jets Recommended Bet 9/11/22

by | Sep 8, 2022 | nfl

Baltimore Ravens (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. New York Jets (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

When: Sunday, September 11, 1 p.m.

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.

TV: CBS

Point Spread: BAL -7.5/NYJ +7.5 (Did you know you can bet on games at -105 odds???)

Total: O/U 44.5

Outlook

Will Lamar Jackson be ready to roll or distracted by contract drama? The Ravens still haven’t announced an extension for their quarterback, and because Jackson serves as his own agent, he has refused to discuss contract details during the season. That means either the Ravens get a deal done by Sunday or risk letting him hit the market, and Jackson playing without a deal waiting for him could either mean that he’s ready to put up huge numbers or that he gets overwhelmed by the pressure.

The Jets don’t have any such issues with their team; they’re just hoping that they get Zach Wilson back as quickly as possible. For the time being, they ride with ex-Raven Joe Flacco and hope that they don’t have to go any further than that down the depth chart. New York is clearly the underdog in everyone’s minds, as the Ravens are now giving more than a touchdown with Flacco announced as the starter until at least October. If the Jets are going to stay in this game and keep it interesting, they absolutely must get off the field on third downs and keep the Ravens from controlling the clock.

How the Public is Betting the Baltimore/New York Game

It’s safe to say that neither the public nor the pros have any faith in Joe Flacco. With him announced as the starter, the line has jumped from -5.5 for the Ravens to -7.5, with 76% of tickets coming in on the Ravens. The total has ticked down to 44.5.

When Baltimore Has the Ball

The Ravens have a clear advantage over the Jets in the trenches, and if they’re smart, they’ll put it to good use. Baltimore is facing an opponent that had so many holes on defense that they couldn’t plug them all, and the Jets play in a division with Josh Allen and Mac Jones, which meant they opted to fix the secondary above the front seven.

That’ll help the Jets when they get into AFC East play, but it could make them easy pickings for a Ravens offense that can play ball control if it wants. Baltimore ranked third on the ground in 2021, and the Jets were 29th against the run without many improvements, which suggests that Jackson and J.K. Dobbins could have a field day in this matchup.

The mistake the Ravens could make here is if Jackson decides to challenge the Jets’ secondary with a weak cast of wide receivers. Obviously, Baltimore can’t just run the ball on every play, but the Ravens will need to intelligently attack the Jets’ defense with short passes. The Jets couldn’t cover the tight end at all last year, and Mark Andrews could have a field day in this matchup.

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When New York Has the Ball

Take everything you just read about the Ravens attacking with the tight end and double it for the Jets. As bad as New York was at stopping the tight end last season, Baltimore was worse, and it’s by far the biggest weakness in the Ravens’ defense. Given Flacco’s history of moving the football, the Jets will need to try to attack the mid-range part of the field and use the Ravens’ aggressive style against them.

That’s especially true because running the ball isn’t likely to go well for the Jets. Not only was New York a lousy ground team last season, but the Ravens’ defense is traditionally excellent against ground attacks and should have no problem handling the Jets when they do try to run the football. Other than the short passes, the Jets’ best plan of attack is likely to go after the Ravens’ corners, as Baltimore’s aggressive play does tend to bite it in certain situations. But unless the Jets can attack the second level of the defense first, the Ravens won’t really have a reason to respect the Jets’ short-yardage game, making it a risky move to attack deep.

More Picks: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Week 1 Point Spread Winner

Betting Trends

Baltimore tends to get rolling in the first week, covering in Week 1 in five of its past six seasons. However, the Ravens haven’t been rolling outside of Week 1; they have just three covers in their past 11 games when they’ve been favored. Meanwhile, the Jets are the epitome of slow starters: they have just one cover in their past six openers. They’re also just 6-20-1 ATS in their past 27 games in September, a testament to just how long the rebuild has taken in New Jersey.

One thing the Jets can do in September is not put up points: the under has cashed in four straight games involving the Jets in the season’s first month. That fits well with the Ravens; they’ve played to the under in four straight as a road favorite.

Weather Report

Sunday’s weather won’t be great, but it won’t be terrible, either. Temperatures will sit at 83 degrees at kickoff, with the wind blowing at six miles per hour to the west and a slight chance of rain.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

This is a lot of points to give, given that the Ravens are a distracted team and didn’t exactly set the world on fire a year ago. The Jets are not a great team, but they have a reasonable blueprint to play out this game. I think the spread is a bit too large in this situation. I will back the Jets. Bet your Week One NFL predictions for FREE by using bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!