Saints vs. Broncos Against the Spread Pick
New Orleans Saints (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Week 12 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 4:05PM EST
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Point Spread: NO -6/DEN +6 (SportsBetting.ag - 50% Free Play Bonus! Awesome Live Betting! 35% Crypto Reloads!)
Over/Under Total: 44
The New Orleans Saints come to Mile High on Sunday to take on the Denver Broncos in Week 12 action. Both teams enter this game coming off a win. For the Saints, it was a bonanza at home, as they thoroughly dominated the Falcons en route to a 24-9 win where the defense was the part of the team that shined the most. They look for more of the same on the road this week against a Denver team that hopes they found something with a nice 20-13 win over a streaking Dolphins team on Sunday. Can they score their second upset in a row, or will the 8-2 Saints provide a reality-sandwich for the plucky Broncos?
The New Saints
Last season, we got a taste of what life was like without Drew Brees for the Saints, but this latest personnel shift looks to have resulted in a new-look offense, with a greater reliance on a defense that has started coming into its own. With Taysom Hill behind center, they might take a step back aerially, but with some good runs, including two TD runs, Hill gives them a big dose of physicality at the quarterback position. And the drop-off through the air wasn’t that bad, with Michael Thomas getting back in the swing of things with a 100+ yard game, with contributions from Latavius Murray, Emmanuel Sanders, and of course, Alvin Kamara. There is something to be said about the solidity of a team-system that has managed to seamlessly uphold their form despite injuries to a crucial and long-tenured quarterback.
The Saints were perhaps fortunate that the injury to Brees occurred just as the defense started hitting a crescendo. In the last three games, they have allowed a sparse 25 total points, not too shabby going against the Bucs, Niners, and Falcons. We see a unit showcasing enormous amounts of energy and out-muscling opponents with their tenacity. Up-front, there is a slew of difference-makers like Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis, with playmakers in the back like Malcolm Jenkins, CJ Gardner-Johnson, Marcus Williams, Janoris Jenkins, and others. On Sunday, Jordan had three sacks, with David Onyemata and Trey Hendrickson adding two apiece, while Davis also got one. Williams and Jenkins each registered picks. As of late, we see a defense that is both stout and with big playmaking ability. Against a Denver offense that has found the consistency to be elusive, this could be another spot where we see this group shine.
More Week 12 Picks: Raiders vs. Falcons Pick ATS >>>
The Saints can have off-weeks when they get on a roll and put forth the occasional clunker. At 8-2, they have some wiggle-room, and it’s not like the Broncos elicit the most urgency from opponents. Still, this is an out-of-conference matchup against an opponent with whom they have no real ax to grind. They’ve shown themselves to be a good road team this season, but with crowds no longer a key part of home-field, Denver might be the toughest road spot, just between the altitude and what could be some chilly late-November weather. The NFL is the NFL, but for an NFC South dome team, this is about as foreign as it can get. In other words, when watching Saints season highlights, not a ton of them take place outdoors in the cold. But let’s face it, when Denver’s case for covering the spread is tied up in locale instead of what they do well, that alone speaks volumes.
Are the Broncos Legitimately-Dangerous in This Spot?
They have their feet dug in at home, and a Miami team that had won five in a row and was feeling good with their new hotshot rookie QB was sent spiraling at Mile High last week, with Tua getting the hook and the Miami defense left gasping for breath. Things can get a little sideways in this setting, particularly if the Broncos are playing on the high-end of their range. At times this season, we’ve seen what could have been if not for a rash of injuries on both sides of the ball, coming in such a way where they could never quite establish a rhythm. But we see a team starting to make better use of what they have.
Drew Lock and this offense have struggled at times. In the last six games, they have scored 20 or fewer points four times, and it can be a grind. There are nice pieces, but a lot of young ones who don’t always all fire every week. But on Sunday, we got a glimpse of what a two-headed monster in the backfield looks like, with Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay both having good games. Tim Patrick had 119 yards and rookies DJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy continue to contribute to varying degrees. Noah Fant is a rising force at tight end, but again, bringing everyone into the fold in a meaningful way has been elusive for Lock, who has just 7 TD throws on the year, against 11 picks.
Take the Home Dog
Once you get past what looks like a potential issue with a peaking Saints’ defense against this Denver O-line, things don’t look so horrible for the Broncos. Their secondary, with AJ Bouye, Justin Simmons, Bryce Callahan, and Kareem Jackson, can really come in handy here against a New Orleans passing-offense that takes a step back with Hill behind center, as opposed to Brees or even Jameis Winston, had they chosen that route. Things might not shake out that wonderfully for the Broncos on both lines of scrimmage, but I see Denver being in a position to thrive a little late in the elements and nose the cover at home this week. I’ll take the Broncos.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 6 points. Make the Broncos +26 by throwing them into a massive 20 point football teaser at BetAnySports!