Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction 11/17/19

by | Nov 14, 2019 | nfl

New Orleans Saints (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS)

NFL Week 11

Date/Time: Sunday November 17th, 2019. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa, F.L.

TV: FOX

Point Spread: NO -5.5/TB +5.5 (BetNow - 50% Real Cash Bonus up to $1000 FREE!)

Over/Under Total: 50

After suffering one of the biggest upsets of the year, the New Orleans Saints will look to rebound in a Week 11 road trip against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Last week the Saints were nearly two-touchdown favorites against the 1-7 SU Falcons, at home inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, yet the dynamic New Orleans’ offense was held to 0 touchdowns in an unthinkable 26-9 loss. Luckily at 7-2 SU, the Saints still hold a two-game advantage in the NFC South and should maintain full control of the NFC South as long as they can avoid a 2nd straight loss to another divisional opponent in Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay’s defense under the microscope

The Buccaneers snapped a four-game losing streak with a 30-27 victory over the Cardinals last week, but it was not exactly pretty. The Tampa Bay defense gave up several big plays in the passing game. Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray lit up the Tampa Bay defense for 324 yards and connected with WR Christian Kirk for three touchdowns. Every time the Buccaneers appeared to be in control, the defense gave up a big play that kept the Cardinals in contention. It was yet another disappointing performance for Head Coach Bruce Arians’ defense that ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 31 points per game on the season.

For whatever reason, the offense continues to get the majority of the criticism for Tampa Bay. Yes, there are legitimate arguments about quarterback Jameis Winston’s tendency to turn the ball over, and I agree the turnovers have been a huge liability. However, the offense continues to post really good numbers. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been exceptional, and the recent emergence of running back Ronald Jones is becoming another legitimate weapon for this offense. Still, the Buccaneers cannot produce wins consistently with a defense that is giving up over 30 points per game, and that is the primary concern going into this weekend’s showdown with the Saints who will be looking to get their offense back on track after an embarrassing effort in week 10.

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Potential shootout looming in Tampa?

The Buccaneers defensive issues are mainly in the secondary where their pass funnel defense has yielded nearly 300 yards on average. Obviously, this game sets up a great opportunity for Drew Brees and company to avenge last week’s lackluster offensive performance. QB Drew Brees is still completing at an extremely high rate (74%) and has some of the best targets in the NFL to exploit Tampa’s vulnerabilities. WR Michael Thomas is on pace to break the single-season receptions record and already has 86 grabs for 1,027 yards. Thomas has another great match-up and running back Alvin Kamara should have an opportunity to shake off his rusty stat lines in recent weeks as well.

For total purposes, the biggest fear for this game staying ‘under’ the mark would be a collapse by the Tampa Bay offense, which is more probable than a 2nd straight subpar performance from the Saints offense. Quarterback Jameis Winston’s turnover rate is always concerning, but as stated previously, Tampa is still averaging 28 points per game over their past five games, which includes four losses. If you also consider that Saints’ star CB Marshon Lattimore will be out this week, it gives us more probable cause to expect the Buccaneers offensive output to continue. Lattimore has been Mike Evans kryptonite in recent meetings, and that should help Winston’s favorite target in the passing game. If Ronald Jones can continue his strong play out of the Buccaneers backfield, this game could easily turn into a shootout for both offenses!

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Over 50. Another wager to consider would be inserting this game into a 19 point NFL teaser, making the OVER 31! You can find this wager at BetAnySports (online since 2002!)

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