San Francisco 49ers (0-2, 1-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-0, 2-0 ATS), Week 3 NFL Football, Arrowhead Stadium, (Natural Grass) Kansas City Missouri, Sunday, September 26th, 2010, 1:00 PM Eastern
By Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com
Betting Odds: SF -2.5/KC +2.5
Over/Under Total: 36.5
Make the Niners/Chiefs total OVER 16.5 when you insert that play into a 20 point NFL teaser at 5Dimes!
Before the season started most experts had these two teams with the exact opposite record after two games into the season. That’s what makes the NFL so much fun to watch. Anything can happen. This game features an 0-2 team favored on the road vs. an underdog 2-0 home team. Very rare indeed!
The San Francisco 49’s are coming off that Monday Night thriller, losing 25-22 in overtime against the defending Super Bowl Champions. They managed to bring home the money for all my customers with a clutch drive in the last minute of the game by Alex Smith. Smith, in his sixth year looks to be getting better with each start. I really think that performance on MNF will be a spring-board for this offense and his career.
The 49er’s out-gained New Orleans 417-287, but committed four costly turnovers. Frank Gore looks like a man on a mission with 112 rushing yards on just 20 carries. Did you see that long catch and spin move for an extra 10 yards by Michael Crabtree? That was sick! Vernon Davis and Josh Morgan complete the three-headed skillful receiving trio. Lost in the game was how well the 49’s defense held up against a very formidable offense.
The Kansas City Chiefs are off to a surprise undefeated start, winning both games straight-up as underdogs. In week one it was obvious that Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ offense had trouble moving the ball in the rain. Last week, Kansas City won because the Cleveland Browns are so bad on offense right now. The Chiefs racked up 140 rushing yards, thanks mostly to Thomas Jones and the super fast Jamaal Charles.
The big match-up in this game will be the 49’s tall receivers against a Chiefs’ secondary that lacks a lot of size. Kansas City has not looked good throwing the ball so far this season. Matt Cassel has thrown for just 244 yards, while only completing 52% of his attempts. His quarterback rating of 55.8 ranks last out of all the undefeated teams.
Alex Smith has thrown for 500 yards while completing 64% of his passes. What I like from Smith is that he has “pocket presence” and command of the offense. The 49’s have to be feeling very confident even though they have not won a game yet this season.
It’s been four years since these two teams have played each other. The game was not close as the Chiefs out-gained SF 333-165, and won easily 41-0 as 7-point home chalk. The 49’s are 9-2-2 against-the-spread vs. a team with a winning record. The Chiefs are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games. Kansas City won’t play their next game until October 10th, as they have a BYE in week four.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: San Fran -2.5
You will hear people say that the 49’s will lose this game because they are coming off a short week, having played on MNF. Don’t belive that hype! The 49’s can not afford to start 0-3, and don’t forget this team has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Kansas City has won both games with smoke and mirrors. The odds-makers installing SF as opening line favorites is very telling. Look for Patrick Willis to play another great game on defense and for Alex Smith to have another “breakout” game on offense. Only this time he will be on the winning side.