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vs. Packers Point Spread and Pick.
Seattle Seahawks (5-9, 5-9 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (9-5, 9-4-1 ATS), NFL Week 16, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Sunday, Dec. 27th, 1 PM Eastern, Fox
By Z-Man of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Packers -14/Seahawks +14
Over/under: 41 1/2
Coming off a tough last-second loss at Pittsburgh, the Green Bay Packers will try to get back on the winning track and solidify their playoff chances when they host the Seattle Seahawks Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field.
Many online sportsbooks opened Green Bay as a 13 1/2-point favorite over Seattle, but by Thursday morning that number has been bet up to -14 almost everywhere. And the total on this game opened at 41 , and hasn’t moved much.
The Packers are also listed at around -900 on most NFL betting moneylines, with Seattle getting upwards of +650 to win outright.
The Seahawks were expected to rebound from a 4-12 campaign last year to contend again in the NFC West this season. But Seattle never got going this year, its first under new head Coach Mora, and after getting to 5-7 earlier this month the ‘Hawks have lost consecutive games to Houston and lowly Tampa Bay by a combined score of 58-14.
At 5-9, Seattle sits in third place in the NFC West, as is looking toward next season.
Green Bay hoped to bounce back this year from a 6-10 season of last year in which they lost numerous close games and actually outscored their opponents on the season. And they’re on the verge of doing just that. The Packers opened 4-4 this year, but reeled off five wins in a row before falling on the last play of the game last week in Pittsburgh. So at 9-5, Green Bay owns the five spot in the NFC playoff standings, and needs one more win and one more loss by either Dallas or the New York Giants to clinch a postseason berth.
The Pack has been good to its financial backers this season, going 9-4-1 vs. the pointspreads. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have been bad money, going 5-9 vs. the numbers.
The Packers biggest problem at the moment is a banged-up defensive secondary that’s lost two starters and a couple of back-ups for the season to injuries. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 503 yards last week vs. Green Bay, exposing that weak link.
Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck is dealing with sore ribs, a sore shoulder and a sore thumb, and his numbers reflect that. On the season, the former Packer has completed 62% of his passes but for just 6.3 YPA, with 15 TDs, 12 interceptions and a 79.6 passing rating.
On the other side of this QB match-up, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is putting up MVP-type numbers, hitting on 64% of his throws for 8.1 YPA, with 28 TDs, just seven INTs, and a 102.4 rating.
On the season, Seattle is getting outgained on average by a 357-319 YPG margin and outrushed 106-94.
The Packers are outgaining opponents this season 379-291, and outrushing foes 115-84.
Also, Green Bay ranks second in the league in average time-of-possession at 32:47, while Seattle ranks 31st at 27:29.
These two teams met in week six last season, when Green Bay went to Seattle and came away with a 27-17 victory. The Pack outgained the Seahawks that day 313-177, but Hasselbeck missed that game, and most of last season, with a bad back.
The totals are 6-8 in Seattle games this season, which have averaged 42 points, and 7-7 in Green Bay games, which have averaged 47 points.
So far this season NFL double-digit favorites are 47-6 straight up but just 26-26 against the pointspreads.
Seattle is 1-6 both straight up and ATS on the road this season, while Green Bay is 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS at Lambeau.
These two teams have played seven common opponents this season. In playing the Rams, 49ers, Bears, Cowboys, Lions, Vikings and Buccaneers, Seattle has gone 4-5 both straight up and against the spread. Meanwhile, Green Bay is 7-3 SU vs. those seven teams, and 6-3-1 vs. the numbers.
The Sagarin PURE POINTS ratings at USAToday.com rate the Packers at 25.0, the Seahawks at 13.3. Toss in Sagarin’s updated NFL home-field advantage figure of 2.5, and Green Bay is a 14-point favorite over Seattle on the Sagarin line.
Z-Man’s Pick: I know that Seattle has been playing like chit, but double digit dogs in the NFL have been great bets (historically). I’d take the Seahawks here or pass.