Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (4-5 SU, 3-4 ATS)
NFL Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday, November 19th, 2017 1:00 PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium Miami, FL
by Keith, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TB +1.5/MIA -1.5
Over/Under Total: 40.5
It will be a battle for Sunshine State supremacy when the Miami Dolphins of the AFC East host the NFC Souths Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what will be a cross-conference clash between these two geographic rivals. The contest will come live from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida where the Dolphins share the venue with the current undefeated Miami Hurricanes. The festivities are set to kick off at 1:00 PM EST and is scheduled to be aired regionally on FOX. The Buccaneers have been dominant in this series as a whole, as they have won four of the previous five contests between the two. Most recently, Tampa took down Miami at Raymond James Stadium in 2013 where they edged out the Fish by a field goal in a 22-19 win.
The Buccaneers come in off a win against a team that the Fish know well, the New York Jets. The Dolphins hosted the Jets a few weeks ago and came from behind to defeat Gang Green. Miami trailed by as much as two touchdowns. Since then, Miami has lost three games in a row. Two of these were in front of primetime audiences against Oakland and Carolina. Thus, the stock on this outfit has fallen through the floor. So far, the public has followed suit and short sold the Dolphins in the contest from the get-go.
For Tampa it was all academic. The Bucs defeated the New York Jets as mentioned to end a five-game losing streak where the Bucs looked appalling at times. Against New Orleans and Carolina, the Bucs looked non-existent as they lost two key divisional matches by an average of 17.5 points in those respective affairs. The Bucs offense was at a stand-still be that they combined for just 13 points in those two games. Over this five-game span, it is worth noting that Tampa lost other three contests against Buffalo, Arizona, and New England by a total of 13 points. Three of the five losses were also sustained on the road. Tampa Bay has yet to win a game away from home this year.
The Dolphins have been subjected to some rather heinous losses in their current losing streak which extends three games. Two of Miamis losses were by a margin greater than 24 points and that makes them a hard sell this week as a favorite at home. Nevertheless, Miami has some stellar talent on their defense. Most notably, the defensive line trio of Cameron Wake, Ndamukong Suh, and Andre Branch. The Dolphins are still searching for an identity on offense with their best player Jay Ajayi departing to Philadelphia in a trade just before the deadline passed.
Nevertheless, we have seen a lean on the Bucs out of the gate. This revealed by a 1.5-point line move downward from the open of this market. This preposition is reinforced by the notion of 100% of the consensus liking Tampa Bay in this scenario as well. In Over/Under markets, the number has remained idle at 40.5 reflecting little investment by the public in either option up to this point. This is to be expected be that the offensive operations of both teams in this contest have been dubious over the span of the 2017-18 season.
We are always on the lookout for short-priced favorites. When monitoring the charts, discovering such a scenario often indicates there is tremendous value to be had. Despite all of the woes that Miami has undergone this season, it is no mistake that they are favored in this contest. The obvious reason being the troubles that Tampa has had on the road but all is forgotten as they took down a team last week whose stock was through the ceiling. Credit is due for taking down the Jets but their bubble was set to burst. Nevertheless, we have seen the public likely overreact at the low-hanging fruit and this prompts us to step and fade the Buccaneers. Miami is in position here to get back on track as they are taking a step down in quality of opposition compared to weeks past. The Fish are going from facing three playoff contenders in consecutive weeks to a bottom-feeder. We have to like that scenario.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: MIAMI -1.5. If the stability of a sportsbook (Online for more than 20 years), fast no hassle payouts, a generoussign-up bonus (50-100%!), player loyalty bonus programs, the ability to bet on games live-in-progressand a huge selection of wagers matters to you (which it should), you need dump your current sportsbook and start betting at one of the web’s best: Intertops! Don’t settle for anything less than the BEST!