Tennessee at Indianapolis Odds, Analysis, Pick ATS

by | Last updated Sep 26, 2022 | nfl

Tennessee Titans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday October 2nd, 2021. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis, IN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TEN +3.5/IND -3.5 (Bovada – 50% Bonus, Best Live Betting, Rebates on ALL Bets!)
Total: 43

Both the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts finally got into the W column in week 3. After dropping losses to the Giants and BIlls, the Titans got their workhorse RB Derrick Henry going last Sunday and pulled out a 24-22 victory over the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Colts suffered a tie in the season opener before putting up a dud in a 24-0 shoutout loss to the Jaguars in week 2. Last week, the Colts came away with a big 20-17 upset win over the Chiefs thanks mainly to a huge defensive effort. This Sunday the Colts return home for the 2nd straight week when they host the Tennessee Titans inside Lucas Oil Stadium as slight 3.5 point favorites.

To be clear, I think the entire AFC South may be the least entertaining division in football this season. While the Jaguars currently hold the top spot at 2-1 SU, I would say that the bulk of the performance from all of the AFC South teams have been relatively ugly when looking at things holistically. I don’t expect this week’s showdown between the Titans and the Colts to be any different. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has looked bad through the first 3 games with 3 touchdowns and 3 picks. The Titans passing game appears to be suffering from the departure of WR AJ Brown and they just don’t have a go-to threat in the receiving corps. The lack of a passing threat has made the run-game with Derrick Henry more challenging. Henry has been held to just 192 yards through 3 games which is considerably down from one of the league’s top rushing threats.

Luckily for Tennessee, the Colts offense has not looked any better. Consensus no. 1 running back Jonathan Taylor has been effective with 286 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. In reality, those numbers are far below what many people would have expected from the NFL’s leading rusher from a year ago. Similar to Tennessee’s struggles, a lot of the Colts’ blame for the lack of running success can be thrown towards the anemic passing attack. QB Matt Ryan has been downright awful with 3 touchdown passes and 4 picks on the season. Ryan has been sacked 12 times in 3 games which is the 3rd worst mark in the NFL and the entire Colts’ receiving corps has been ineffective. As a result, we have two offenses with a lot of lingering question marks ahead of this week 4 showdown which can justify the relatively low 43 point total that is listed.

Fade the Titans Defense

At first glance, these two teams are very similar, especially stylistically on the offensive side of the football. In my opinion, the biggest difference in this game is the lackluster Titans defense that has also shown some very poor road splits over the last two seasons. The Titans run defense has given up 145 yards per game on the ground and that has been against bottom-tier rushing opponents. Giants RB Saquan Barkley ran wild against the Titans in the opener for 164 yards on just 18 carries. As a result, I think this is a prime spot for Jonathan Taylor to bounce back in a big way following two relatively lackluster box scores. The Colts have the offensive line advantage and the running back that can get the job done. I think fading the Titans defense is the best angle for this match-up and I think the Colts’ realize they have to get Taylor more touches than he has seen in recent weeks.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends

  • The Titans are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games
  • The Titans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings against the Colts
  • The Titans have hit the “under” in 6 of the last 9 games
  • The Titans have hit the “over” in 9 of the last 11 games on the road
  • The Colts are also 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games
  • The Colts have hit the “under” in all 8 of the last 8 games
  • The Colts are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games against AFC South opponents

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Prediction

Again, I really like the Colts and Jonathan Taylor to have a big performance in this game. Obviously the horrendous play of QB Matt Ryan is risky but I expect Ryan to be better if the ground game picks up. Not the most confident pick of the week but I will take the Colts laying the points!<br< p=””> </br<>

Jay’s Pick: Take the Colts -3.5. Bet your Week 4 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM on the special offers page at Evergame Sportsbook after making your deposit! EG is the world’s oldest and most trusted online sportsbook!